Articles | Volume 1, issue 1
Original research article
16 Apr 2015
Original research article |  | 16 Apr 2015

Global distribution of soil organic carbon – Part 2: Certainty of changes related to land use and climate

M. Köchy, A. Don, M. K. van der Molen, and A. Freibauer

Related authors

Global distribution of soil organic carbon – Part 1: Masses and frequency distributions of SOC stocks for the tropics, permafrost regions, wetlands, and the world
M. Köchy, R. Hiederer, and A. Freibauer
SOIL, 1, 351–365,,, 2015
Short summary

Related subject area

Soils and global change
Thermodynamic and hydrological drivers of the soil and bedrock thermal regimes in central Spain
Félix García-Pereira, Jesús Fidel González-Rouco, Thomas Schmid, Camilo Melo-Aguilar, Cristina Vegas-Cañas, Norman Julius Steinert, Pedro José Roldán-Gómez, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Almudena García-García, Hugo Beltrami, and Philipp de Vrese
SOIL, 10, 1–21,,, 2024
Short summary
The effect of different biopreparations on soil physical properties and CO2 emissions when growing winter wheat and oilseed rape
Sidona Buragienė, Egidijus Šarauskis, Aida Adamavičienė, Kęstutis Romaneckas, Kristina Lekavičienė, Daiva Rimkuvienė, and Vilma Naujokienė
SOIL, 9, 593–608,,, 2023
Short summary
Earthworm-invaded boreal forest soils harbour distinct microbial communities
Justine Lejoly, Sylvie Quideau, Jérôme Laganière, Justine Karst, Christine Martineau, Mathew Swallow, Charlotte Norris, and Abdul Samad
SOIL, 9, 461–478,,, 2023
Short summary
Back to the future? Conservative grassland management can preserve soil health in the changing landscapes of Uruguay
Ina Säumel, Leonardo R. Ramírez, Sarah Tietjen, Marcos Barra, and Erick Zagal
SOIL, 9, 425–442,,, 2023
Short summary
Effects of a warmer climate and forest composition on soil carbon cycling, soil organic matter stability and stocks in a humid boreal region
David Paré, Jérôme Laganière, Guy R. Larocque, and Robert Boutin
SOIL, 8, 673–686,,, 2022
Short summary

Cited articles

Allison, S. D., Wallenstein, M. D., and Bradford, M. A.: Soil-carbon response to warming dependent on microbial physiology, Nat. Geosci., 3, 336–340,, 2010.
Alo, C. A. and Wang, G.: Potential future changes of the terrestrial ecosystem based on climate projections by eight general circulation models, J. Geophys. Res., 113, G01004,, 2008.
Anisimov, O. A., Shiklomanov, N. I., and Nelson, F. E.: Variability of seasonal thaw depth in permafrost regions: a stochastic modeling approach, Ecol. Model., 153, 217–227,, 2002.
Armentano, T. V. and Mengeo, E. S.: Patterns of change in the carbon balance of organic soil-wetlands of the temperate zone, J. Ecol., 74, 755–774, 1985.
Brovkin, V., Boysen, L., Arora, V. K., Boisier, J. P., Cadule, P., Chini, L., Claussen, M., Friedlingstein, P., Gayler, V., van den Hurk, B. J. J. M., Hurtt, G. C., Jones, C. D., Kato, E., de Noblet-Ducoudré, N., Pacifico, F., Pongratz, J., and Weiss, M.: Effect of anthropogenic land-use and land-cover changes on climate and land carbon storage in CMIP5 projections for the twenty-first century, J. Climate, 26, 6859–6881,, 2013.
Short summary
Using ranges for variables in a model of organic C stocks of the top 1m of soil on a global 0.5° grid, we assessed the (un)certainty of changes in stocks over the next 75 years. Changes are more certain where land-use change strongly affects carbon inputs and where higher temperatures and adequate moisture favour decomposition, e.g. tropical mountain forests. Global stocks will increase by 1% with a certainty of 75% if inputs to the soil increase due to CO₂ fertilization of the vegetation.