Articles | Volume 1, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-1-367-2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-1-367-2015
Original research article
 | 
16 Apr 2015
Original research article |  | 16 Apr 2015

Global distribution of soil organic carbon – Part 2: Certainty of changes related to land use and climate

M. Köchy, A. Don, M. K. van der Molen, and A. Freibauer

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Cited articles

Allison, S. D., Wallenstein, M. D., and Bradford, M. A.: Soil-carbon response to warming dependent on microbial physiology, Nat. Geosci., 3, 336–340, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo846, 2010.
Alo, C. A. and Wang, G.: Potential future changes of the terrestrial ecosystem based on climate projections by eight general circulation models, J. Geophys. Res., 113, G01004, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JG000528, 2008.
Anisimov, O. A., Shiklomanov, N. I., and Nelson, F. E.: Variability of seasonal thaw depth in permafrost regions: a stochastic modeling approach, Ecol. Model., 153, 217–227, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3800(02)00016-9, 2002.
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Brovkin, V., Boysen, L., Arora, V. K., Boisier, J. P., Cadule, P., Chini, L., Claussen, M., Friedlingstein, P., Gayler, V., van den Hurk, B. J. J. M., Hurtt, G. C., Jones, C. D., Kato, E., de Noblet-Ducoudré, N., Pacifico, F., Pongratz, J., and Weiss, M.: Effect of anthropogenic land-use and land-cover changes on climate and land carbon storage in CMIP5 projections for the twenty-first century, J. Climate, 26, 6859–6881, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00623.1, 2013.
Short summary
Using ranges for variables in a model of organic C stocks of the top 1m of soil on a global 0.5° grid, we assessed the (un)certainty of changes in stocks over the next 75 years. Changes are more certain where land-use change strongly affects carbon inputs and where higher temperatures and adequate moisture favour decomposition, e.g. tropical mountain forests. Global stocks will increase by 1% with a certainty of 75% if inputs to the soil increase due to CO₂ fertilization of the vegetation.