Articles | Volume 1, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-1-367-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-1-367-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Original research article
| 
16 Apr 2015
Original research article |
| 16 Apr 2015
Global distribution of soil organic carbon – Part 2: Certainty of changes related to land use and climate
Thünen Institute of Climate-Smart Agriculture, Bundesallee 50, 38116 Braunschweig, Germany
now at: Thünen Institute of Market Analysis, Bundesallee 50, 38116 Braunschweig, Germany
Thünen Institute of Climate-Smart Agriculture, Bundesallee 50, 38116 Braunschweig, Germany
M. K. van der Molen
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Boelelaan 1085, 1081 HV Amsterdam, the Netherlands
now at: Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, the Netherlands
A. Freibauer
Thünen Institute of Climate-Smart Agriculture, Bundesallee 50, 38116 Braunschweig, Germany
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Cited
42 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Potential of conservation tillage and altered land configuration to improve soil properties, carbon sequestration and productivity of maize based cropping system in eastern Himalayas, India G. Yadav et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iswcr.2020.12.003
- Changes in soil carbon stocks under plantation systems and natural forests in Northeast India G. Mishra et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2021.109500
- Effects of terracing on soil properties in three key mountainous regions of China D. Chen et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geosus.2021.08.002
- Influence of different tree species on autotrophic and heterotrophic soil respiration in a mined area under reclamation F. Valente et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.4035
- Taking climate, land use, and social economy into estimation of carbon budget in the Guanzhong-Tianshui Economic Region of China T. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-017-8483-x
- Eucalyptus geometry in agroforestry on waterlogged saline soils influences plant and soil traits in North-West India J. Dagar et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2016.08.025
- Variations of Soil Organic Carbon Following Land Use Change on Deep‐Loess Hillsopes in China X. Gao et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.2693
- Soil mapping, classification, and pedologic modeling: History and future directions E. Brevik et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoderma.2015.05.017
- Simulated soil organic carbon stocks in northern China’s cropland under different climate change scenarios H. Jia et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.still.2021.105088
- Plant restoration leads to divergent sequestration of soil carbon and nitrogen in different fractions in an arid desert region X. Jia et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.3416
- The Influence of Grain Legume and Tillage Strategies on CO2 and N2O Gas Exchange under Varied Environmental Conditions E. Hansen et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture11050464
- Soil carbon debt of 12,000 years of human land use J. Sanderman et al. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1706103114
- Soil Organic Carbon and Inorganic Carbon Accumulation Along a 30‐year Grassland Restoration Chronosequence in Semi‐arid Regions (China) Y. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.2632
- Divergent controls of exchangeable calcium and iron oxides in regulating soil organic carbon content across climatic gradients in arid regions Z. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.109939
- Agricultural land abandonment in Mediterranean environment provides ecosystem services via soil carbon sequestration A. Novara et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.10.123
- The distribution of organic carbon fractions in a typical loess-paleosol profile and its paleoenvironmental significance Q. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.4611
- Response of soil organic carbon to land-use change after farmland abandonment in the karst desertification control Y. Mu et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11104-024-06541-w
- Influence of different management practices on carbon sequestration of agricultural soils – a review P. Singh et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/03650340.2022.2158326
- Study on the synergistic carbon sequestration mechanism of Firmicutes in soil induced by highly conjugated Fe2O3@leather scraps-derived collagen-based biochar J. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijbiomac.2025.143760
- Afforestation Drives Soil Carbon and Nitrogen Changes in China L. Deng & Z. Shangguan https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.2537
- Simulating soil organic carbon stock as affected by land cover change and climate change, Hyrcanian forests (northern Iran) A. Soleimani et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.05.077
- National soil organic carbon estimates can improve global estimates U. Vitharana et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoderma.2018.09.005
- Estimating Soil Organic Carbon Density in the Otindag Sandy Land, Inner Mongolia, China, for modelling spatiotemporal variations and evaluating the influences of human activities B. Sun et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2019.03.034
- Global and regional soil organic carbon estimates: Magnitudes and uncertainties Z. LIN et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pedsph.2023.06.005
- Leguminous species sequester more carbon than gramineous species in cultivated grasslands of a semi-arid area Y. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/se-8-83-2017
- Modelling the Effect of Land Management Changes on Soil Organic Carbon Stocks in a Mediterranean Cultivated Field L. Quijano et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.2637
- Comparing the Performance of Three Land Models in Global C Cycle Simulations: A Detailed Structural Analysis R. Rafique et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.2506
- Estimation of the Value of Ecosystem Carbon Sequestration Services under Different Scenarios in the Central China (the Qinling-Daba Mountain Area) Y. Yu et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12010337
- Soil Organic Carbon Stock (SOCS) in Eutrophic and Saline Ramsar Wetlands in Serbia F. Vasić et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w18010016
- Above‐Ground and Below‐Ground Ecosystem Biomass Accumulation and Carbon Sequestration with Caragana korshinskii Kom Plantation Development L. Deng et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.2642
- Soil organic carbon distribution in Mediterranean areas under a climate change scenario via multiple linear regression analysis A. Olaya-Abril et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.03.021
- Refining benchmarks for soil organic carbon in Australia’s temperate forests L. Bennett et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoderma.2020.114246
- Land use conversion, climate change and soil organic carbon: Modeling a citrus garden chronosequence in Northern Iran E. Bakhshandeh et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geodrs.2022.e00559
- Climate-Induced Shifts in Global Soil Temperature Regimes M. Grillakis et al. https://doi.org/10.1097/SS.0000000000000156
- Carbon Fluxes from Different Pools in a Mined Area under Reclamation in Minas Gerais State, Brazil D. Oliveira et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.2601
- The Role of Fertilization on Soil Carbon Sequestration in Bibliometric Analysis H. Zheng et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture14101850
- Climate and land use changes effects on soil organic carbon stocks in a Mediterranean semi-natural area B. Lozano-García et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.11.111
- Dynamics of soil organic matter in a cultivated chronosequence in the Cerrado (Minas Gerais, Brazil) T. Resende et al. https://doi.org/10.1071/SR16131
- Spectral fusion by Outer Product Analysis (OPA) to improve predictions of soil organic C F. Terra et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoderma.2018.08.005
- One thousand soils for molecular understanding of belowground carbon cycling M. Bowman et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fsoil.2023.1120425
- Soil organic carbon prediction using phenological parameters and remote sensing variables generated from Sentinel-2 images X. He et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2021.105442
- Effects of permanent grass versus tillage on aggregation and organic matter dynamics in a poorly developed vineyard soil S. Belmonte et al. https://doi.org/10.1071/SR15277
42 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Potential of conservation tillage and altered land configuration to improve soil properties, carbon sequestration and productivity of maize based cropping system in eastern Himalayas, India G. Yadav et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iswcr.2020.12.003
- Changes in soil carbon stocks under plantation systems and natural forests in Northeast India G. Mishra et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2021.109500
- Effects of terracing on soil properties in three key mountainous regions of China D. Chen et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geosus.2021.08.002
- Influence of different tree species on autotrophic and heterotrophic soil respiration in a mined area under reclamation F. Valente et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.4035
- Taking climate, land use, and social economy into estimation of carbon budget in the Guanzhong-Tianshui Economic Region of China T. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-017-8483-x
- Eucalyptus geometry in agroforestry on waterlogged saline soils influences plant and soil traits in North-West India J. Dagar et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2016.08.025
- Variations of Soil Organic Carbon Following Land Use Change on Deep‐Loess Hillsopes in China X. Gao et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.2693
- Soil mapping, classification, and pedologic modeling: History and future directions E. Brevik et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoderma.2015.05.017
- Simulated soil organic carbon stocks in northern China’s cropland under different climate change scenarios H. Jia et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.still.2021.105088
- Plant restoration leads to divergent sequestration of soil carbon and nitrogen in different fractions in an arid desert region X. Jia et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.3416
- The Influence of Grain Legume and Tillage Strategies on CO2 and N2O Gas Exchange under Varied Environmental Conditions E. Hansen et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture11050464
- Soil carbon debt of 12,000 years of human land use J. Sanderman et al. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1706103114
- Soil Organic Carbon and Inorganic Carbon Accumulation Along a 30‐year Grassland Restoration Chronosequence in Semi‐arid Regions (China) Y. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.2632
- Divergent controls of exchangeable calcium and iron oxides in regulating soil organic carbon content across climatic gradients in arid regions Z. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.109939
- Agricultural land abandonment in Mediterranean environment provides ecosystem services via soil carbon sequestration A. Novara et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.10.123
- The distribution of organic carbon fractions in a typical loess-paleosol profile and its paleoenvironmental significance Q. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.4611
- Response of soil organic carbon to land-use change after farmland abandonment in the karst desertification control Y. Mu et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11104-024-06541-w
- Influence of different management practices on carbon sequestration of agricultural soils – a review P. Singh et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/03650340.2022.2158326
- Study on the synergistic carbon sequestration mechanism of Firmicutes in soil induced by highly conjugated Fe2O3@leather scraps-derived collagen-based biochar J. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijbiomac.2025.143760
- Afforestation Drives Soil Carbon and Nitrogen Changes in China L. Deng & Z. Shangguan https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.2537
- Simulating soil organic carbon stock as affected by land cover change and climate change, Hyrcanian forests (northern Iran) A. Soleimani et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.05.077
- National soil organic carbon estimates can improve global estimates U. Vitharana et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoderma.2018.09.005
- Estimating Soil Organic Carbon Density in the Otindag Sandy Land, Inner Mongolia, China, for modelling spatiotemporal variations and evaluating the influences of human activities B. Sun et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2019.03.034
- Global and regional soil organic carbon estimates: Magnitudes and uncertainties Z. LIN et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pedsph.2023.06.005
- Leguminous species sequester more carbon than gramineous species in cultivated grasslands of a semi-arid area Y. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/se-8-83-2017
- Modelling the Effect of Land Management Changes on Soil Organic Carbon Stocks in a Mediterranean Cultivated Field L. Quijano et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.2637
- Comparing the Performance of Three Land Models in Global C Cycle Simulations: A Detailed Structural Analysis R. Rafique et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.2506
- Estimation of the Value of Ecosystem Carbon Sequestration Services under Different Scenarios in the Central China (the Qinling-Daba Mountain Area) Y. Yu et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12010337
- Soil Organic Carbon Stock (SOCS) in Eutrophic and Saline Ramsar Wetlands in Serbia F. Vasić et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w18010016
- Above‐Ground and Below‐Ground Ecosystem Biomass Accumulation and Carbon Sequestration with Caragana korshinskii Kom Plantation Development L. Deng et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.2642
- Soil organic carbon distribution in Mediterranean areas under a climate change scenario via multiple linear regression analysis A. Olaya-Abril et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.03.021
- Refining benchmarks for soil organic carbon in Australia’s temperate forests L. Bennett et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoderma.2020.114246
- Land use conversion, climate change and soil organic carbon: Modeling a citrus garden chronosequence in Northern Iran E. Bakhshandeh et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geodrs.2022.e00559
- Climate-Induced Shifts in Global Soil Temperature Regimes M. Grillakis et al. https://doi.org/10.1097/SS.0000000000000156
- Carbon Fluxes from Different Pools in a Mined Area under Reclamation in Minas Gerais State, Brazil D. Oliveira et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.2601
- The Role of Fertilization on Soil Carbon Sequestration in Bibliometric Analysis H. Zheng et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture14101850
- Climate and land use changes effects on soil organic carbon stocks in a Mediterranean semi-natural area B. Lozano-García et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.11.111
- Dynamics of soil organic matter in a cultivated chronosequence in the Cerrado (Minas Gerais, Brazil) T. Resende et al. https://doi.org/10.1071/SR16131
- Spectral fusion by Outer Product Analysis (OPA) to improve predictions of soil organic C F. Terra et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoderma.2018.08.005
- One thousand soils for molecular understanding of belowground carbon cycling M. Bowman et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fsoil.2023.1120425
- Soil organic carbon prediction using phenological parameters and remote sensing variables generated from Sentinel-2 images X. He et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2021.105442
- Effects of permanent grass versus tillage on aggregation and organic matter dynamics in a poorly developed vineyard soil S. Belmonte et al. https://doi.org/10.1071/SR15277
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 11 Aug 2026
Short summary
Using ranges for variables in a model of organic C stocks of the top 1m of soil on a global 0.5° grid, we assessed the (un)certainty of changes in stocks over the next 75 years. Changes are more certain where land-use change strongly affects carbon inputs and where higher temperatures and adequate moisture favour decomposition, e.g. tropical mountain forests. Global stocks will increase by 1% with a certainty of 75% if inputs to the soil increase due to CO₂ fertilization of the vegetation.
Using ranges for variables in a model of organic C stocks of the top 1m of soil on a global...
