Articles | Volume 1, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-1-367-2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-1-367-2015
Original research article
 | 
16 Apr 2015
Original research article |  | 16 Apr 2015

Global distribution of soil organic carbon – Part 2: Certainty of changes related to land use and climate

M. Köchy, A. Don, M. K. van der Molen, and A. Freibauer

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Short summary
Using ranges for variables in a model of organic C stocks of the top 1m of soil on a global 0.5° grid, we assessed the (un)certainty of changes in stocks over the next 75 years. Changes are more certain where land-use change strongly affects carbon inputs and where higher temperatures and adequate moisture favour decomposition, e.g. tropical mountain forests. Global stocks will increase by 1% with a certainty of 75% if inputs to the soil increase due to CO₂ fertilization of the vegetation.