Permafrost peatlands are large reservoirs of carbon. As frozen permafrost thaws, drier peat moisture conditions can arise, affecting the microbial production of climate-warming greenhouse gases like CO₂ and N₂O. Our study suggests that future peat CO₂ and N₂O production depends on whether drier peat plateaus thaw into wetter fens or bogs and on their diverging responses of peat respiration to more moisture-limited conditions.