Articles | Volume 12, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-12-619-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-12-619-2026
Original research article
 | 
13 May 2026
Original research article |  | 13 May 2026

Estimating soil carbon sequestration potential with mid-IR spectroscopy and explainable machine learning

Yang Hu and Raphael A. Viscarra Rossel

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Cited articles

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Abramoff, R. Z., Guenet, B., Zhang, H., Georgiou, K., Xu, X., Viscarra Rossel, R. A., Yuan, W., and Ciais, P.: Improved global-scale predictions of soil carbon stocks with Millennial Version 2, Soil Biol. Biochem., 164, 108466, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soilbio.2021.108466, 2022. a
Angers, D., Arrouays, D., Saby, N., and Walter, C.: Estimating and mapping the carbon saturation deficit of French agricultural topsoils, Soil Use Manage., 27, 448–452, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-2743.2011.00366.x, 2011. a
Baldock, J., McNally, S., Beare, M., Curtin, D., and Hawke, B.: Predicting soil carbon saturation deficit and related properties of New Zealand soils using infrared spectroscopy, Soil Res., 57, 835–844, https://doi.org/10.1071/SR19149, 2019. a, b
Beare, M., McNeill, S., Curtin, D., Parfitt, R., Jones, H., Dodd, M., and Sharp, J.: Estimating the organic carbon stabilisation capacity and saturation deficit of soils: a New Zealand case study, Biogeochemistry, 120, 71–87, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10533-014-9982-1, 2014. a
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Short summary
We analysed 482 Australian topsoils to estimate mineral-associated organic carbon (MAOC) and the carbon storage deficit (Cdef). Using mid-infrared spectra with explainable machine learning, we predicted MAOC (R2=0.86) and Cdef (R2=0.89). Model interpretation revealed signals from organic matter and clay minerals were most significant in predicting MAOC and Cdef. Our work provides an accurate, cost-effective means to assess and better understand the drivers of soil carbon sequestration potential.
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