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  <front>
    <journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">SOIL</journal-id><journal-title-group>
    <journal-title>SOIL</journal-title>
    <abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">SOIL</abbrev-journal-title><abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">SOIL</abbrev-journal-title>
  </journal-title-group><issn pub-type="epub">2199-398X</issn><publisher>
    <publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
    <publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
  </publisher></journal-meta>
    <article-meta>
      <article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/soil-6-337-2020</article-id><title-group><article-title>Modeling soil and landscape evolution –<?xmltex \hack{\break}?> the effect of rainfall and land-use
change<?xmltex \hack{\break}?> on soil and landscape patterns</article-title><alt-title>Modeling soil and landscape evolution</alt-title>
      </title-group><?xmltex \runningtitle{Modeling soil and landscape evolution}?><?xmltex \runningauthor{W.~M.~van~der~Meij et al.}?>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes" rid="aff1 aff2">
          <name><surname>van der Meij</surname><given-names>W. Marijn</given-names></name>
          <email>marijn.vandermeij@wur.nl</email>
        <ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8724-5120</ext-link></contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff3 aff4">
          <name><surname>Temme</surname><given-names>Arnaud J. A. M.</given-names></name>
          
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff1">
          <name><surname>Wallinga</surname><given-names>Jakob</given-names></name>
          
        <ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4061-3066</ext-link></contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff2 aff5">
          <name><surname>Sommer</surname><given-names>Michael</given-names></name>
          
        </contrib>
        <aff id="aff1"><label>1</label><institution>Soil Geography and Landscape Group, Wageningen University and
Research,<?xmltex \hack{\break}?> P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA, Wageningen, the Netherlands</institution>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff2"><label>2</label><institution>Research Area Landscape Functioning, Working Group Landscape Pedology,
Leibniz-Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research ZALF, Eberswalder
Straße 84, 15374 Müncheberg, Germany</institution>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff3"><label>3</label><institution>Department of Geography, Kansas State University, 920 N17th Street,
Manhattan, KS 66506, USA</institution>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff4"><label>4</label><institution>Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado,
Campus,<?xmltex \hack{\break}?> P.O. Box 450, Boulder, CO 80309-0450, USA</institution>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff5"><label>5</label><institution>Institute of Environmental Science &amp; Geography, University of
Potsdam,<?xmltex \hack{\break}?> Karl-Liebknecht-Straße 24–25, 14476 Potsdam, Germany</institution>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <author-notes><corresp id="corr1">W. Marijn van der Meij (marijn.vandermeij@wur.nl)</corresp></author-notes><pub-date><day>3</day><month>August</month><year>2020</year></pub-date>
      
      <volume>6</volume>
      <issue>2</issue>
      <fpage>337</fpage><lpage>358</lpage>
      <history>
        <date date-type="received"><day>24</day><month>October</month><year>2019</year></date>
           <date date-type="rev-request"><day>7</day><month>November</month><year>2019</year></date>
           <date date-type="rev-recd"><day>12</day><month>May</month><year>2020</year></date>
           <date date-type="accepted"><day>2</day><month>June</month><year>2020</year></date>
      </history>
      <permissions>
        <copyright-statement>Copyright: © 2020 W. Marijn van der Meij et al.</copyright-statement>
        <copyright-year>2020</copyright-year>
      <license license-type="open-access"><license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://soil.copernicus.org/articles/6/337/2020/soil-6-337-2020.html">This article is available from https://soil.copernicus.org/articles/6/337/2020/soil-6-337-2020.html</self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="https://soil.copernicus.org/articles/6/337/2020/soil-6-337-2020.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://soil.copernicus.org/articles/6/337/2020/soil-6-337-2020.pdf</self-uri>
      <abstract><title>Abstract</title>
    <p id="d1e146">Humans have substantially altered soil and landscape patterns and properties due to agricultural use, with severe impacts on
biodiversity, carbon sequestration and food security. These impacts are
difficult to quantify, because we lack data on long-term changes in soils in
natural and agricultural settings and available simulation methods are not
suitable for reliably predicting future development of soils under projected changes in climate and land management. To help overcome these challenges,
we developed the HydroLorica soil–landscape evolution model that simulates soil development by explicitly modeling the spatial water balance as a driver of soil- and landscape-forming processes. We simulated 14 500 years of soil formation under natural conditions for three scenarios of different rainfall inputs. For each scenario we added a 500-year period of intensive
agricultural land use, where we introduced tillage erosion and changed
vegetation type.</p>
    <p id="d1e149">Our results show substantial differences between natural soil patterns under
different rainfall input. With higher rainfall, soil patterns become more
heterogeneous due to increased tree throw and water erosion. Agricultural
patterns differ substantially from the natural patterns, with higher
variation of soil properties over larger distances and larger correlations
with terrain position. In the natural system, rainfall is the dominant
factor influencing soil variation, while for agricultural soil patterns
landform explains most of the variation simulated. The cultivation of soils
thus changed the dominant factors and processes influencing soil formation and thereby also increased predictability of soil patterns. Our study
highlights the potential of soil–landscape evolution modeling for simulating past and future developments of soil and landscape patterns. Our results confirm that humans have become the dominant soil-forming factor in
agricultural landscapes.</p>
  </abstract>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
<body>
      

<?pagebreak page338?><sec id="Ch1.S1" sec-type="intro">
  <label>1</label><title>Introduction</title>
      <p id="d1e161">Soils provide valuable functions for nature and society by supporting plant
growth and agriculture, managing water and solute flow, sequestering carbon,
preserving archaeological heritage, creating habitats for plants and animals
and providing support for infrastructure (Dominati et al., 2010; Greiner
et al., 2017). However, soils are currently degrading by agricultural
intensification and climate change, forming one of the largest threats to
global food security and biodiversity (Bai et al., 2008; Montanarella et
al., 2016; Tscharntke et al., 2012). A drastic change in land management is
needed to restore healthy soils and soil functions (IPCC, 2019).
Combating soil degradation and promoting sustainable land management
therefore stands high on the agenda of the soil science community (Bouma,
2014; Cowie et al., 2018; Keesstra et al., 2018; Kust et al., 2017; Minasny
et al., 2017).</p>
      <p id="d1e164">The first step towards sustainable land management and a return to healthy,
natural soils is a fundamental understanding of the development and
characteristics of natural soil patterns and how these change under human influence. Therefore, we will focus in this paper on gently to strongly
sloping undulating landscapes that are suitable for agricultural use (maximum slope <inline-formula><mml:math id="M1" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>∼</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">20</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> %, Bibby and Mackney, 1969). Soil-forming processes are controlled by at least five environmental factors: climate,
organisms, relief, parent material and time (the ClORPT model, Jenny,
1941). Different factors dominate in natural and agricultural settings. In
natural settings with flat or undulating topography, soil erosion generally
occurs at very low rates or is absent (Alewell et al., 2015;
Wilkinson, 2005). Some soil redistribution can occur as a consequence of
creep or tree throw (Gabet et al., 2003). More importantly,
tree throw creates local pits and mounds, which temporarily change hillslope
hydrology and act as local hotspots for soil development due to a larger
influx of water (Šamonil et al., 2015; Shouse and Phillips, 2016).
These seemingly random processes create a high degree of heterogeneity in
soil patterns, which shows little to no correlation with relief
(Vanwalleghem et al., 2010). In contrast, intensively
managed agricultural landscapes show soil patterns that closely follow the
relief (Phillips et al., 1999; Van der Meij et
al., 2017). This reflects the fact that erosion processes are relief-dependent, and this propagates into the soil patterns, unless erosion and deposition
patterns are affected by field margins such as hedges or banks. The switch
from such natural to agricultural soil systems can occur abruptly, e.g., by deforestation or the implementation of highly mechanized agriculture in a
few decades. Sommer et al. (2008) described this switch in
boundary conditions and its implications with a time-split approach: over a short time period – relative to Holocene soil evolution – the soil system changes from natural, progressive pedogenesis, where profile deepening and
horizon formation dominate erosive processes, to regressive pedogenesis,
where – vice versa – erosion and deposition dominate progressive pedogenic processes (Johnson and Watson-Stegner, 1987).</p>
      <p id="d1e177">The coexistence of both progressive and regressive processes in a defined
period of time has been described by several authors. In a progressive phase
there are also regressive processes that change soils, terrain and
hydrological pathways (Phillips et al., 2017; Šamonil et al., 2018).
In a regressive phase, progressive processes still have a substantial effect
on soil development (Doetterl et al., 2016; Montagne et al., 2008).
Colluvic soils might be influenced by groundwater or subject to continuous
clay illuviation (Leopold and Völkel, 2007; Van der Meij et al.,
2019; Zádorová and Pení žek, 2018). Furthermore, the
changes in boundary conditions are not always as abrupt as, e.g., deforestation. Historic erosion processes with rates much lower than current erosion processes might have given pedogenic processes the time to alter soil and
colluvium (Van der Meij et al., 2019).</p>
      <p id="d1e180">To disentangle complex history and causes of soil formation, data are required on both natural and agricultural soils that have formed under
similar conditions, and preferably from the same region. However, there is
limited undisturbed natural land left, often rapidly declining, in places
that are unsuitable for agriculture and/or indirectly influenced by anthropogenic climate change (e.g., tropical and boreal zones, IPCC, 2019). Moreover, (historical) cultivation occurred in areas and soils most
suitable for agriculture (Pongratz et al., 2008; Vanwalleghem et al.,
2017), leaving less suitable land undisturbed. This complicates comparison
and empirical inference. Because of the complex interactions between
pedogenic and geomorphic processes, and the lack of field data, we heavily
depend on process knowledge and model simulations for mechanistic inference
about how natural soil patterns develop as a function of their environments and how this changes in agricultural settings (Opolot et
al., 2015).</p>
      <p id="d1e184">Soil evolution models simulate a range of physical, chemical and biotic
processes that affect the properties of soils through space and time
(Minasny et al., 2015; Stockmann et al., 2018; Vereecken et al., 2016).
Such models have been developed for a range of scales, varying from 1D soil
profiles to 3D soil landscapes (Finke, 2012; Minasny et al., 2015; Temme
and Vanwalleghem, 2016). One-dimensional soil profile models generally
provide a high level of detail and process coverage, but they lack the
simulation of essential feedbacks and interactions that can occur between
soils on a landscape scale (Van der Meij et al.,
2018). For example, the spatial redistribution of water or the exchange of
soil material through erosion and deposition processes affects soils differently at different landscape positions. Soil landscape evolution
models (SLEMs) do simulate lateral distribution of solids by geomorphic
processes and consider soils to be continua rather than discrete units. Current SLEMs perform reasonably well in landscapes where lateral soil movement is
substantial (e.g., Temme and Vanwalleghem, 2016; Van Oost et al., 2005). However, these models are not developed to simulate soil development in
relatively stable landscapes<?pagebreak page339?> where lateral water redistribution is the
dominant driver causing soil heterogeneity, because this hydrologic control
is not explicitly modeled (Van der Meij et al., 2018).</p>
      <p id="d1e187">To summarize, we are currently lacking data and methods that can quantify
the effect of changing soil-forming factors on soil development and spatiotemporal soil patterns. This knowledge is essential for the transition
to sustainable land management and adaptation to the changing climate. The
objective of this study is to develop a suitable model for quantifying the variation and predictability of soil patterns as a function of varying
environmental factors. We will address three questions.
<list list-type="order"><list-item>
      <p id="d1e192">What are the basic characteristics of soil patterns in natural and
agricultural landscapes?</p></list-item><list-item>
      <p id="d1e196">What are the major factors driving soil formation in natural and
agricultural landscapes?</p></list-item><list-item>
      <p id="d1e200">How does the predictability of soil patterns change through time and after
cultivation?</p></list-item></list></p>
      <p id="d1e203">We developed a soil–landscape evolution model that can simulate natural soil and landscape evolution by incorporating dominant natural processes such as soil creep, tree throw, vegetation dynamics and infiltration-dependent
pedogenesis driven by the soil-forming factors climate, organisms, relief, parent material and time. We simulated soil formation for 14 500 years under
three scenarios of rainfall (dry, humid, wet) to quantify the effect of
water availability and distribution on soil variation in natural systems.
Each run was concluded with 500 years of intensive agricultural land use,
where we introduced the process of tillage erosion. Tillage erosion is a
dominant process redistributing soil material in intensively managed
agricultural fields (Van Oost et al., 2005).</p>
      <p id="d1e206">We expect that before intensive cultivation, spatial soil heterogeneity will
be larger for greater rainfall, due to more intense erosion and
translocation processes and effects of vegetation. Moreover, we expect that the spatial heterogeneity will increase by erosion processes under cultivation,
also resulting in larger correlations between soil properties and
topographic properties, because of the topographic dependence of erosion
processes. This would imply that soil patterns become more predictable due
to cultivation, at least for circumstances without hedges or banks that
would modify the spatial distribution of erosion and deposition areas.</p>
      <p id="d1e209">For our simulations, we created a hypothetical loess-covered, hilly
landscape with a range of characteristic slope positions as the spatial setting. We choose loess, because it is a relatively homogeneous parent material,
widely spread globally and favored for agricultural practices due to its
high water-holding capacity and resulting fertility (Catt, 2001). The long-term use of loess areas for agriculture and unsustainable
management has resulted in severe land degradation (e.g., Zhao et al., 2013).</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S2">
  <label>2</label><title>Methods</title>
<sec id="Ch1.S2.SS1">
  <label>2.1</label><title>Model</title>
      <p id="d1e227">Here we describe our model named HydroLorica. HydroLorica is based on the
model Lorica (Temme and Vanwalleghem, 2016), but includes
explicit simulation of water flow and water availability as drivers of
natural soil, landscape and vegetation change (Van
der Meij et al., 2018). HydroLorica is a reduced-complexity model, which
means that it simulates processes affecting soil and landscapes using
simplified process descriptions. Reducing model complexity promotes critical
evaluation of essential processes, reduces calculation time and prevents
extensive data requirements and over-parameterization (Hunter et al.,
2007; Kirkby, 2018; Marschmann et al., 2019; Snowden et al., 2017; Temme et
al., 2011).</p>
<sec id="Ch1.S2.SS1.SSS1">
  <label>2.1.1</label><title>Model architecture</title>
      <p id="d1e237">HydroLorica is a raster-based model, where a digital elevation model (DEM) determines the shape of the terrain. Below each raster cell of the DEM there
is a predetermined number of soil layers with layer thicknesses variable in
space and time. Each layer can contain a specific mixture of gravel, sand,
silt and clay and two types of organic matter (quickly and
slowly decomposing, Yoo et al., 2006), depending on parent material and
occurring pedogenic processes. Pedogenic and geomorphic processes affect the
contents of the layers, leading to differences in soils in space and time.
Changes in soil properties and contents modify layer thicknesses and surface
elevation through a pedotransfer function (PTF) of bulk density. The use of
a pedotransfer function allowed the model to calculate variations in layer
thicknesses due to pedogenic and geomorphic processes. We used the same PTF
for bulk density as the original Lorica model (Tranter et al.,
2007). We refer to Temme and Vanwalleghem (2016) for more
information about the spatial model architecture of Lorica, which we
maintained in our adaptation HydroLorica. In this project, we worked with 25
soil layers, with an initial uniform thickness of 0.15 m. When a layer got
very thick or very thin (55 % thicker or thinner than its initial value),
the layer was split or combined with another layer.</p>
      <p id="d1e240">The annual changes in texture classes tex (kg) and organic matter classes om (kg) in layer <inline-formula><mml:math id="M2" display="inline"><mml:mi>l</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> at location <inline-formula><mml:math id="M3" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>x</mml:mi><mml:mi>y</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and time <inline-formula><mml:math id="M4" display="inline"><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> are governed following Eqs. (1) and (2) (for
abbreviations of processes, see Table 1). The
changes in mass of texture and organic matter are converted to a change in
layer thickness (m) using a pedotransfer function (Tranter et al., 2007). We calculated the bulk density of the fine mineral fraction (kg m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M5" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>) with Eq. (3) using the sand and silt
fraction (–) and the depth below the surface (m). HydroLorica includes a correction of bulk density taking into account the effects of the coarse
fraction and the organic fraction using Eq. (4),
using a density of 2700 kg m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M6" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> for the coarse fraction
(Temme and Vanwalleghem, 2016) and a density of 224 kg m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M7" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> for the<?pagebreak page340?> organic fraction (Tranter et al., 2007). In our
study, there is no coarse soil material present. This pedotransfer function
does not directly take into account changes in bulk density stemming from
soil structuring, weathering or bioturbation. Instead, depth below the
surface is used as a proxy for these factors. The used PTF has a relatively low fit with the data it was derived from (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M8" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.41</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>,
Tranter et al., 2007). However, PTFs that yield a higher accuracy often
require advanced calculation methods (Chen et al., 2018; Ramcharan et
al., 2017) or soil properties that are not readily available in HydroLorica.
As we discuss in Van der Meij et al. (2018), the
estimation of such properties often gives biased or highly uncertain
results, which would propagate into the calculation of bulk density. Rather
than stacking pedotransfer functions, we decided to use a PTF that required
input that is readily available in HydroLorica and could be calculated
within the model itself.</p>

<?xmltex \floatpos{p}?><table-wrap id="Ch1.T1" orientation="landscape"><?xmltex \currentcnt{1}?><label>Table 1</label><caption><p id="d1e322">Overview of processes simulated in HydroLorica, including
driving soil-forming factors in the model and landscape variables that are affected by each process. Humans are considered an additional soil-forming factor (Amundson and Jenny, 1991; Richter et al., 2015).</p></caption><oasis:table frame="topbot"><oasis:tgroup cols="11">
     <oasis:colspec colnum="1" colname="col1" align="left"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="2" colname="col2" align="left"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="3" colname="col3" align="center"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="4" colname="col4" align="center"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="5" colname="col5" align="center"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="6" colname="col6" align="center"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="7" colname="col7" align="center" colsep="1"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="8" colname="col8" align="center"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="9" colname="col9" align="center"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="10" colname="col10" align="center"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="11" colname="col11" align="center"/>
     <oasis:thead>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"/>
         <oasis:entry rowsep="1" namest="col3" nameend="col7" colsep="1">Soil-forming factor </oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry rowsep="1" namest="col8" nameend="col11">Landscape variable affected </oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Process</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">Abbreviation</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">Climate</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">Organisms</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">Relief</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">Parent</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">Humans</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">Topography</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9">Soil</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col10">Water</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col11">Vegetation</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">(rainfall)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">(vegetation</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">material</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9">properties</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col10">balance</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col11">type</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">type)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">(soil texture)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col10"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col11"/>
       </oasis:row>
     </oasis:thead>
     <oasis:tbody>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Bioturbation</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">BT</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">X</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9">X</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col10"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col11"/>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Carbon accumulation and breakdown</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">CAB</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">X</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9">X</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col10"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col11"/>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Clay translocation</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">CT</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">X</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">X</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9">X</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col10"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col11"/>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Creep</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">CR</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">X</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">X</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">X</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9">X</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col10"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col11"/>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Pedon-scale water partitioning</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">WP</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">X</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">X</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">X</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col10">X</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col11"/>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Surface flow</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">SF</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">X</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">X</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">X</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col10">X</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col11"/>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Tillage</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">TI</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">X</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">X</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">X</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9">X</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col10"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col11"/>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Tree throw</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">TT</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">X</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">X</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">X</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9">X</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col10"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col11"/>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Vegetation selection</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">VS</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">X</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">X</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">X</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col10">X</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col11">X</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Water erosion</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">WE</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">X</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">X</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">X</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">X</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">X</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9">X</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col10"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col11"/>
       </oasis:row>
     </oasis:tbody>
   </oasis:tgroup></oasis:table></table-wrap>

      <?pagebreak page341?><p id="d1e790">The sum of changes in layer thickness of all layers <inline-formula><mml:math id="M9" display="inline"><mml:mi>L</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> calculated through
changes in bulk density and mass of the layers results in the annual change in elevation <inline-formula><mml:math id="M10" display="inline"><mml:mi>z</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> (Eq. 5). Clay translocation and water
erosion are directly driven by the total annual water flow, while occurrence
of tree throw and rates of creep, bioturbation and organic matter
accumulation are indirectly driven by water availability via vegetation
controls. Infiltration <inline-formula><mml:math id="M11" display="inline"><mml:mi>I</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> is the difference between precipitation <inline-formula><mml:math id="M12" display="inline"><mml:mi>P</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> and
spatially explicit actual evapotranspiration ETa, runon ROnn and runoff ROff
(Eq. 6). HydroLorica works with dynamic time steps
as suggested by Van der Meij et al. (2018) to capture
process dynamics at their relevant scales while optimizing calculation time. Hydrologic processes are calculated with a daily, monthly, or yearly
time step, with smaller time steps selected during wetter conditions for more accurate simulation. Annual sums of infiltration and overland flow are used
to drive geomorphic, pedogenic and biotic processes.

                  <disp-formula specific-use="gather" content-type="numbered"><mml:math id="M13" display="block"><mml:mtable rowspacing="5.690551pt 5.690551pt 5.690551pt 8.535827pt 8.535827pt" displaystyle="true"><mml:mlabeledtr id="Ch1.E1"><mml:mtd><mml:mtext>1</mml:mtext></mml:mtd><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mstyle class="stylechange" displaystyle="true"/><mml:mtable columnspacing="1em" class="split" rowspacing="0.2ex" displaystyle="true" columnalign="right left"><mml:mtr><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">tex</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi>x</mml:mi><mml:mi>y</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>l</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:mtd><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">tex</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CR</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>x</mml:mi><mml:mi>y</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>l</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">tex</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">WE</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>x</mml:mi><mml:mi>y</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>l</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:mtd></mml:mtr><mml:mtr><mml:mtd/><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">tex</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">TT</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>x</mml:mi><mml:mi>y</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>l</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">tex</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">TI</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>x</mml:mi><mml:mi>y</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>l</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:mtd></mml:mtr><mml:mtr><mml:mtd/><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">tex</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CT</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>x</mml:mi><mml:mi>y</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>l</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">tex</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">BT</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>x</mml:mi><mml:mi>y</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>l</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:mtd></mml:mtr></mml:mtable></mml:mrow></mml:mtd></mml:mlabeledtr><mml:mlabeledtr id="Ch1.E2"><mml:mtd><mml:mtext>2</mml:mtext></mml:mtd><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mstyle class="stylechange" displaystyle="true"/><mml:mtable rowspacing="0.2ex" columnspacing="1em" class="split" displaystyle="true" columnalign="right left"><mml:mtr><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">om</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi>x</mml:mi><mml:mi>y</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>l</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:mtd><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">om</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CR</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>x</mml:mi><mml:mi>y</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>l</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">om</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">WE</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>x</mml:mi><mml:mi>y</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>l</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:mtd></mml:mtr><mml:mtr><mml:mtd/><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">om</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">TT</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>x</mml:mi><mml:mi>y</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>l</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">om</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">TI</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>x</mml:mi><mml:mi>y</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>l</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:mtd></mml:mtr><mml:mtr><mml:mtd/><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">om</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CAB</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>x</mml:mi><mml:mi>y</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>l</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">om</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">BT</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>x</mml:mi><mml:mi>y</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>l</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:mtd></mml:mtr></mml:mtable></mml:mrow></mml:mtd></mml:mlabeledtr><mml:mlabeledtr id="Ch1.E3"><mml:mtd><mml:mtext>3</mml:mtext></mml:mtd><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true" class="stylechange"/><mml:mtable class="split" columnspacing="1em" rowspacing="0.2ex" displaystyle="true" columnalign="right left"><mml:mtr><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">BD</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">fine</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>x</mml:mi><mml:mi>y</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>l</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:mtd><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1000</mml:mn><mml:mfenced close="" open="("><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1.35</mml:mn><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.452</mml:mn><mml:mfenced open="(" close=")"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>f</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">sand</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.76</mml:mn><mml:msub><mml:mi>f</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">silt</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:mfenced></mml:mrow></mml:mfenced></mml:mrow></mml:mtd></mml:mtr><mml:mtr><mml:mtd/><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:msup><mml:mfenced open="(" close=")"><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">100</mml:mn><mml:mfenced open="(" close=")"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>f</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">sand</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.76</mml:mn><mml:msub><mml:mi>f</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">silt</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:mfenced><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">44.65</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:mfenced><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:mtd></mml:mtr><mml:mtr><mml:mtd/><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mfenced close=")" open=""><mml:mrow><mml:mo>×</mml:mo><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.000614</mml:mn><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.06</mml:mn><mml:mo>⋅</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi>log⁡</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">10</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mfenced close=")" open="("><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">depth</mml:mi></mml:mfenced></mml:mrow></mml:mfenced></mml:mrow></mml:mtd></mml:mtr></mml:mtable></mml:mrow></mml:mtd></mml:mlabeledtr><mml:mlabeledtr id="Ch1.E4"><mml:mtd><mml:mtext>4</mml:mtext></mml:mtd><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true" class="stylechange"/><?xmltex \hack{\hbox\bgroup\fontsize{9.5}{9.5}\selectfont$\displaystyle}?><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">BD</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">soil</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>x</mml:mi><mml:mi>y</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>l</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true"><mml:mfrac style="display"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">mass</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">total</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>x</mml:mi><mml:mi>y</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>l</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mstyle displaystyle="false"><mml:mfrac style="text"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">mass</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">fine</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>x</mml:mi><mml:mi>y</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>l</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">BD</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">fine</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>x</mml:mi><mml:mi>y</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>l</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:mfrac></mml:mstyle><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mstyle displaystyle="false"><mml:mfrac style="text"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">mass</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">coarse</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>x</mml:mi><mml:mi>y</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>l</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2700</mml:mn></mml:mfrac></mml:mstyle><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mstyle displaystyle="false"><mml:mfrac style="text"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">mass</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">organic</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>x</mml:mi><mml:mi>y</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>l</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">224</mml:mn></mml:mfrac></mml:mstyle></mml:mrow></mml:mfrac></mml:mstyle><?xmltex \hack{$\egroup}?></mml:mrow></mml:mtd></mml:mlabeledtr><mml:mlabeledtr id="Ch1.E5"><mml:mtd><mml:mtext>5</mml:mtext></mml:mtd><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mstyle class="stylechange" displaystyle="true"/><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi>z</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi>x</mml:mi><mml:mi>y</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mo>∑</mml:mo><mml:mrow><mml:mi>l</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow><mml:mi>L</mml:mi></mml:msubsup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">BD</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">soil</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mfenced close=")" open="("><mml:mrow><mml:mo movablelimits="false">∑</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">tex</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi>x</mml:mi><mml:mi>y</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>l</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mo movablelimits="false">∑</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">om</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi>x</mml:mi><mml:mi>y</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>l</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:mfenced></mml:mrow></mml:mtd></mml:mlabeledtr><mml:mlabeledtr id="Ch1.E6"><mml:mtd><mml:mtext>6</mml:mtext></mml:mtd><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mstyle class="stylechange" displaystyle="true"/><mml:msub><mml:mi>I</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi>x</mml:mi><mml:mi>y</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi>P</mml:mi><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">ETa</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi>x</mml:mi><mml:mi>y</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">ROnn</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi>x</mml:mi><mml:mi>y</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">ROff</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi>x</mml:mi><mml:mi>y</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:mtd></mml:mlabeledtr></mml:mtable></mml:math></disp-formula></p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S2.SS1.SSS2">
  <label>2.1.2</label><title>Process formulation and parameters</title>
      <p id="d1e1623">In our model we considered only the impact of physical and biological
processes on soil properties. The current model architecture does not
facilitate the simulation of soil chemical processes. The selected processes
are described below. Drivers and impacts of each process are summarized in
Table 1. We summarized the drivers per soil-forming factor. We mostly used the processes and parameters of Lorica as reported in
Temme and Vanwalleghem (2016), which we summarize here. When we
added a new process or changed its parameters, the adjustments are reported in this section. We provided a detailed overview of the equations and selected parameters in Supplement 1.</p>
      <p id="d1e1626">We aim to understand the functioning of general soil–landscape systems. Therefore, we parametrized and calibrated the model processes using regional
data or process rates from the literature that are valid for larger regions. We did not calibrate the parameters on data from one specific study site to
avoid the effect of any idiosyncrasies that can be present in those data. For other processes where there were no regional data available, we estimated the
parameters so that the effects of those processes were on the same order of magnitude as processes with rates based on the literature. An overview of the process parameters is provided in Table S1 in the Supplement.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S2.SS1.SSSx1" specific-use="unnumbered">
  <title>Hydrologic processes</title>
      <p id="d1e1635">The hydrological module partitions spatially uniform rainfall (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M14" display="inline"><mml:mi>P</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>) into three
spatially explicit components: evapotranspiration (ET), infiltration (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M15" display="inline"><mml:mi>I</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>) and
surface flow (ROnn and ROff, Eq. 6). Potential ET
is calculated from prescribed temperature using the Hargreaves–Samani equation (Hargreaves and Samani, 1985) and corrected for
topographical position (Swift, 1976) and vegetation type (Allen
et al., 1998). Surface flow is calculated on a daily basis, and only when
rainfall intensity (amount <inline-formula><mml:math id="M16" display="inline"><mml:mo>/</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> duration, mm h<inline-formula><mml:math id="M17" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>) exceeds the saturated hydraulic conductivity of the topsoil, which is a function of soil
properties and slope (Morbidelli et al., 2018; Wösten et al., 2001),
or precipitation in the form of snow is melting. The excess water is routed
over the surface using the multiple flow algorithm (Holmgren,
1994) and can re-infiltrate in places with higher hydraulic conductivity, in
local surface depressions, or can leave the catchment. HydroLorica can thus
deal with DEMs that contain depressions and actively forms depression by simulating tree throw. The annual sum of daily surface flow is used to
calculate annual water erosion and deposition using the stream power law. To
account for seasonal differences, actual ET is calculated on a monthly basis
from the potential ET and rainfall using the topsoil water budget model of
Pistocchi et al. (2008). Infiltration is the sum of (re-)infiltrated
surface water and the monthly difference between rainfall and actual ET (Eq. 6). The annual water balance is used as a driver
of various geomorphic and pedogenic processes and to determine vegetation type. The hydrological module is described in detail in Appendix A of
Van der Meij et al. (2018).</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S2.SS1.SSSx2" specific-use="unnumbered">
  <title>Determination of vegetation type</title>
      <p id="d1e1678">We considered two types of natural vegetation: grassland and forest. The
vegetation type depends on the water availability; where rainfall plus
re-infiltration exceeds potential evapotranspiration, there is no water
stress and forests can grow. Otherwise, there is water stress and there will
be grassland. This threshold is based on a hypothesis from
Thompson et al. (2010), who used the Budyko curve (Budyko
and Miller, 1974) to estimate vegetation type. By extending this
relationship with re-infiltration, this relation can be used to assess
local but spatially explicit vegetation type. Vegetation type thus has a climatic control and a topographic control in the form of hillslope aspect
and local convergence of water flow in gullies and depressions
(e.g., Metzen et al., 2019). This variation in moisture and vegetation can occur very locally, especially in semi-arid regions.
Vegetation type influences evapotranspiration (Allen et al., 1998),
bioturbation and creep rate (Gabet et al., 2003) and the occurrence of tree throw, and also controls organic matter input. Under
intensive agricultural use, we convert the vegetation type to arable crops.
We assume that soil and landscape processes are similar to landscapes under
grassland vegetation. The differences are that arable crops have lower
potential evapotranspiration and the process of tillage is introduced.</p>
      <p id="d1e1681">Our method of estimating vegetation type can lead to annual changes in
vegetation type depending on water availability, because we do not consider
ecological processes such as resilience or succession. The portion of years
with grassland and forest vegetation aggregated over longer time spans
(<inline-formula><mml:math id="M18" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">&gt;</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">100</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> yr) provides an estimate for the forest cover of that
specific location (see the animations in Supplement 2). The vegetation
distribution should thus be considered on an aggregated level rather than an
annual level to yield meaningful results. This implementation suffices for
our focus on long-term changes in soils and terrain, but should not be used
to study systems on annual to decadal timescales.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S2.SS1.SSSx3" specific-use="unnumbered">
  <title>(Bio-)geomorphic processes</title>
      <p id="d1e1700">The main (bio-)geomorphic processes affecting topography in loess areas are
soil creep, tree throw, water erosion and tillage erosion. Soil creep is a
bio-geomorphic process that causes a diffuse movement of soil material on a
hillslope, driven by various factors such as (micro)climate, organisms and
terrain (Pawlik and Šamonil, 2018; Regmi et al., 2019; Roering et
al., 2002). The potential creep rate is a function<?pagebreak page342?> of vegetation type and
slope (Gabet et al., 2003). We adopt higher creep rates in
forested areas, because of the deeper rooting depth and higher root
abundance. We divided the potential creep rate at a certain location over
all soil layers, with exponentially decreasing rates deeper in the soil. The
transport of soil material from a layer to layers in its lower-lying neighboring cells is proportional to the surface slope and shared layer
boundaries.</p>
      <p id="d1e1703">Tree throw is a bio-geomorphic process that has a distinct effect on the
terrain and water routing; the created pit can act as a hotspot for soil formation by the increased infiltration of water
(Šamonil et al., 2018). We simulated tree throw as a
random process, with on average 0.2 trees falling per hectare per year. This
rate is lower than other rates found in natural forests around the world
(0.3–1.5 trees ha<inline-formula><mml:math id="M19" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> yr<inline-formula><mml:math id="M20" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>, Finke et al., 2013; Gallaway et al., 2009;
Phillips et al., 2017), because some factors controlling tree uprooting like
shallow rooting depths due to impermeable layers or steep slopes are not
present in our spatial setting. The dimensions of the root clump that is
transported by tree throw were scaled with the age of the falling tree,
which was also randomly selected. We assumed that tree growth occurs in the
first 150 years of a tree's existence, after which size remains stable until
a maximum age of 300 years. These numbers and trends are loosely based on
Rozas (2003). A pit and mound topography is only formed when the
dimensions of the root clump exceed the size of the raster cell (1.5 m in
our case) and that material is transported to a cell downslope. When the
root clump is smaller than the cell size or when the slope of the terrain does not lead to downward transport of the material, tree throw will only
cause a (partial) turbation of the upper layers in the affected raster
cells.</p>
      <p id="d1e1730">Water erosion and deposition are calculated using the same approach as the
original Lorica model (Temme and Vanwalleghem, 2016). Sediment
uptake and deposition are calculated as a function of discharge and surface gradients (Schoorl et al., 2002). Sediment uptake is simulated
as a selective process, where smaller particles are easier to erode and more
difficult to deposit. Organic matter behaves the same as clay under erosion,
because we assumed that organic matter occurs in associations with clay
particles. Water erosion is limited by the occurrence of coarse soil
particles (surface armoring) and vegetation. The role of water erosion in
forested loess catchments is limited (Vanwalleghem et al.,
2010); the vegetation protects the soil below from erosion. However,
disturbances such as forest fires can temporarily increase erodibility of
the soil. Therefore, we did simulate water erosion in forested landscapes,
but with lower rates than in grassland. We simulated this by including a
high vegetation protection constant (value of 1) in forested sites. In
grasslands we used the aridity index between 0 and 1 as the vegetation protection constant.</p>
      <p id="d1e1733">Tillage erosion was simulated as a diffusive process, similar to creep, with
some differences: tillage homogenized the soil over the reach of the plough
depth, erosion only occurred from the top layer contrary to the whole soil
profile as with creep, and the erosion rates were much higher due to the
intensive land management.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S2.SS1.SSSx4" specific-use="unnumbered">
  <title>(Bio-)pedogenic processes</title>
      <p id="d1e1742">We simulated three dominant (bio-)pedogenic processes that change texture
and organic matter properties in loess landscapes. These are clay
translocation, bioturbation and soil organic matter accumulation and
breakdown.</p>
      <p id="d1e1745">We adapted a new way of simulating clay translocation, using the advection
equation of Jagercikova et al. (2017). The diffusive part of clay
translocation as described by Jagercikova et al. (2017) is separately
modeled by bioturbation. We scaled the parameters of clay translocation with local infiltration to develop an infiltration-dependent equation. Not all clay in the soil is available for translocation. Part of it is not available
to the percolating water, because it is bonded to other minerals and organic
matter. We used the equations of Brubaker et al. (1992) to
estimate the part of the clay that is water-dispersible, i.e., that is available for translocation by water. We estimated the required cation exchange capacity (CEC) with a pedotransfer function from Ellis and Foth (1996), as a function of clay
content and organic matter content. Following from these equations, the
fraction of non-dispersible (remaining) clay is 5.9 % in soils without soil organic matter (SOM) and increases with 1.2 % for every extra percent of SOM. This approach is
similar to the one used in soil profile model SoilGen2 (Finke,
2012).</p>
      <p id="d1e1748">Bioturbation works as a diffusive processes, homogenizing the soil
vertically (Yoo et al., 2011). We used the same rates for bioturbation
as for creep, because these processes are driven by the same organisms
reworking the soil. The potential bioturbation rate was divided over each
soil layer by integrating the exponential depth function over the layer
thickness and then dividing by the integration of the function over the entire soil profile. Every layer exchanges a certain fraction of its
contents, based on initial bioturbation rate and depth, with all other
layers. The amount of exchange between two layers decreases with increasing
distance.</p>
      <p id="d1e1751">SOM accumulation and breakdown were simulated as in earlier soil–landscape evolution models (Minasny et al., 2008; Temme and Vanwalleghem, 2016; Vanwalleghem et al., 2013; Yoo et al., 2006). Accumulation of SOM is controlled by the potential input and depth in the
soil. The accumulation is divided over a young and old SOM pool using a
fractionation factor. These pools differ in their rate of decomposition. We
calibrated the SOM cycle in agricultural settings with the average depth
distribution of organic carbon in agricultural soils on the Chinese loess
plateaus (Liu et al., 2011). We simulated 5000 years of soil
development using different process parameters. We selected the parameter
set that simulated an organic matter distribution most similar to the
reference distributions from Liu et al. (2011). The reported
depth distributions for pasture and forest soils by<?pagebreak page343?> Liu et al. (2011) were not useful for this project. Soils under these vegetation types
on the Chinese loess plateau generally contain lower SOM stocks than natural
landscapes, because these positions often have recently been replanted to
combat soil erosion or because they occur in topographic positions which are not favorable for plant growth and agriculture. Instead, we calculated
reference carbon stocks for forest and grassland soils by adjusting the
agricultural carbon stocks of Liu et al. (2011) with changes in
carbon stocks after conversion from forest to crop and from forest to
pasture (Guo and Gifford, 2002). With the resulting
reference carbon stocks for natural vegetation we ran additional
calibrations to calculate the potential SOM input for forest and grassland.</p>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S2.SS2">
  <label>2.2</label><title>Experimental setup</title>
      <p id="d1e1763">We developed an artificial topographic setting in which we performed our
simulations. The use of an artificial setting rather than a field setting
avoids the effect of local disturbances and idiosyncrasies which can disturb
general signals we look for in the model results.</p>
      <p id="d1e1766">The input DEM is an artificially created <inline-formula><mml:math id="M21" display="inline"><mml:mi>U</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>-shaped valley of 150 by 150 m, with a cell size of 1.5 m (Fig. 1). The slopes facing northward and southward have a sinusoid form, and valley depth increases eastward, from 0 to 9 m. Random noise of maximum 1 cm was added. The maximum slope is 12<inline-formula><mml:math id="M22" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> (21 %), which reaches the limit
for agricultural use (Bibby and Mackney, 1969). The small cell size of
1.5 m is required to simulate the effect of pit and mound topography
created by tree throw on spatial infiltration patterns. The landscape was
designed to display typical topographic features present in loess areas, but
we exaggerated the spatial variation of slope positions to limit catchment
size and reduce calculation time.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F1" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{1}?><label>Figure 1</label><caption><p id="d1e1787"><bold>(a)</bold> Annual rainfall in loess areas, derived from
WorldClim. Red lines indicate the rainfall scenarios in this study: 300
(dry), 600 (humid) and 900 (wet) mm per year. <bold>(b)</bold> Maps of input DEM with
corresponding slope map <bold>(c)</bold>. The extent of the DEM is <inline-formula><mml:math id="M23" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">150</mml:mn><mml:mo>×</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">150</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> m, with a cell size of 1.5 m. The different classes indicate elevation classes used in
the analysis of variance (ANOVA) (Table 3). The blue dots and line indicate the location of the soil profiles and transect displayed
in Figs. 2 and
3.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=455.244094pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://soil.copernicus.org/articles/6/337/2020/soil-6-337-2020-f01.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d1e1817">As parent material we chose a homogeneous loess without carbonates and a
soil texture of 15 % sand, 75 % silt and 10 % clay, which falls in the
typical range of loess deposits (Muhs, 2007; Pécsi, 1990).
We assumed an infinite loess thickness to avoid any effects of layers
underneath with different lithologies. However, for computational reasons,
we worked with an initial loess layer of 3 m with free leaching of water and
dispersed clay at the lower boundary. This approach reduced the number of soil layers and prevented numerical instability from the pedotransfer
function for depth-dependent bulk density. The selected thickness left
sufficient soil material so that the bottom of the loess was not reached by
erosion during any of the model runs.</p>
      <p id="d1e1820">The model requires a latitude to calculate solar inclination on the slopes.
We selected the latitude of 50<inline-formula><mml:math id="M24" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> N, which is in the center of the
range for loess occurrence reported by Muhs (2007, 40–60<inline-formula><mml:math id="M25" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> N). We selected the rainfall scenarios based on most common rainfall in
loess areas. For this, we made an overlay of a coarse-resolution global loess map (Dürr et al., 2005) with a global annual rainfall map
(Fick and Hijmans, 2017). The distribution of rainfall from the
overlay showed peaks at <inline-formula><mml:math id="M26" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>∼</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">600</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M27" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>∼</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">900</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> mm
(Fig. 1). We selected these annual quantities of
rainfall as input for our scenarios and we added a scenario of 300 mm to
capture a wider range of climates. The model requires as input daily data on
rainfall (m), rainfall duration (h), and minimum, mean and maximum temperature (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M28" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C). Rainfall amount is required to calculate how
much water flows through the soil landscape. Rainfall intensity is required
to determine whether and how much overland flow occurs, by comparing
rainfall intensity with soil hydraulic conductivity. Rainfall intensity is
calculated by dividing the rainfall amount by the daily duration (m h<inline-formula><mml:math id="M29" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>). Temperature data are required to calculate potential evapotranspiration (Hargreaves and Samani, 1985). As we want to
simulate general trends in soil and landscape evolution, we do not need
site-specific data for the different scenarios. Instead, an arbitrary
weather dataset was scaled to the total amount of rainfall from the
different climate scenarios. We used weather data from German weather station Grünow, which is located at 53.3<inline-formula><mml:math id="M30" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> N, 13.9<inline-formula><mml:math id="M31" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> E
(DWD Climate Data Center (CDC), 2018a, b). The potential
evapotranspiration is around 600 mm yr<inline-formula><mml:math id="M32" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> for this dataset and is applied
to all simulations. Combined with the rainfall scenarios, the scenarios can
roughly be classified as dry (300 mm rainfall), humid (600 mm rainfall) and
wet (900 mm rainfall). In the rest of this paper, we will use the terms dry,
humid and wet to refer to the different rainfall scenarios.</p>
      <p id="d1e1913">We simulated the development of soils and landscapes for 15 000 years,
resembling the age of most post-glacial soils. In the first 14 500 years of
the simulations, soil and landscape development occurred under natural
conditions and land cover. In the last 500 years of the simulations, we
introduced agricultural land use by changing vegetation type and introducing
tillage erosion. This duration was selected because it loosely reflects the
onset of Medieval intense agriculture in many areas
(Van der Meij et al., 2019) and should be seen as an upper limit of the onset of intensive tillage. Each of our simulations assumes a
constant climate throughout the 15 000 simulated years. Although we expect
our model to be suitable for investigating the effects of a changing climate on soil and landscape evolution, this is beyond the scope of this study.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F2" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{2}?><label>Figure 2</label><caption><p id="d1e1918">Transect through the catchment at the end of the natural
phase and the end of the agricultural phase for the humid scenario (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M33" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>P</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">600</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> mm). The black line indicates initial topography. See
Fig. 1  for the location of the transect.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=341.433071pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://soil.copernicus.org/articles/6/337/2020/soil-6-337-2020-f02.png"/>

        </fig>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F3" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{3}?><label>Figure 3</label><caption><p id="d1e1941">Evolution of soil profiles through time (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M34" display="inline"><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> axis) on a stable, eroding and depositing position (rows), for the different rainfall
scenarios (columns). The colored bars atop the plots indicate land cover
(natural) and land use (agricultural). The points indicate the SOM stocks
(right <inline-formula><mml:math id="M35" display="inline"><mml:mi>y</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> axis). Note that the natural and agricultural systems have different <inline-formula><mml:math id="M36" display="inline"><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> axis scales to visualize both systems. In the agricultural system, an observation is shown every 500 years, in the agricultural phase, every 50 years. See  Fig. 1  for locations
of the soil profiles. See  Fig. 2
for the soil color legend.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=455.244094pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://soil.copernicus.org/articles/6/337/2020/soil-6-337-2020-f03.png"/>

        </fig>

</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S2.SS3">
  <label>2.3</label><title>Analysis and evaluation</title>
      <p id="d1e1979">The model potentially outputs all soil properties for each layer at each
location at each time step. Additionally, elevation change resulting from
all processes at each location at each time step can be saved. In order to
be able to interpret the results, we had to aggregate the results in several
ways. We focused on select soil and terrain properties. The selected soil
properties are soil organic matter stock (kg m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M37" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>), which is the total amount of SOM in a soil column, and the depth to the Bt horizon (m), which
we defined as the depth where the clay content first exceeds the initial
clay fraction of the soil. The selected terrain properties are slope
(<inline-formula><mml:math id="M38" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>), topographic position index (TPI; m), calculated with square windows <inline-formula><mml:math id="M39" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">15</mml:mn><mml:mo>×</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">15</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> cells (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M40" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">22.5</mml:mn><mml:mo>×</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">22.5</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> m), and the topographic wetness index (TWI; –). In most figures, we present two moments in time. These are the end of
the natural phase (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M41" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>t</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">14</mml:mn><mml:mspace linebreak="nobreak" width="0.125em"/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">500</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) and the end of the agricultural phase (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M42" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>t</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">15</mml:mn><mml:mspace width="0.125em" linebreak="nobreak"/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">000</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>). We present the results in the following ways.
<list list-type="bullet"><list-item>
      <p id="d1e2060">To show the development of soils and catenae, we show transects across the
catchment (Fig. 2), and plots of soil profile
evolution, for three landscape positions and three rainfall scenarios
(Fig. 3).</p></list-item><list-item>
      <p id="d1e2064">To compare natural and agricultural soil properties, we show
catchment-averaged depth distributions of clay and SOM fractions
(Fig. 4).</p></list-item><list-item>
      <p id="d1e2068">To show the impact of geomorphic processes on the terrain, we show
cumulative elevation changes at the end of the natural and agricultural
phases, and we show contributions to elevation change for each geomorphic process over time (Fig. 5).</p></list-item><list-item>
      <p id="d1e2072">To quantify the spatial heterogeneity of the selected soil and terrain
properties, we calculated experimental semivariograms
(Fig. 6), using the gstat package in R
(Pebesma, 2004). Experimental semivariograms give a measure of
the variation between properties of soils as a function of distance between
soils. We compared the semivariograms of depth to the Bt horizon with
semivariograms made from field observations in a natural<?pagebreak page345?> and agricultural
site. The experimental semivariograms from the model results were calculated
with a lag of 2 m, while the experimental semivariograms from the field data
were calculated with a lag of 20 m.</p></list-item><list-item>
      <p id="d1e2076">To visualize soil–landscape relations, we show how the selected soil properties and terrain properties are correlated and how these correlations change through time (Fig. 7).</p></list-item><list-item>
      <p id="d1e2080">To disentangle the effects of various factors on soil properties, we performed an analysis of variance (Table 3). We
selected the depth to Bt and the carbon stock at the end of the natural and
agricultural phases as dependent variables. As independent variables we selected climate (three rainfall classes), land cover or use (natural or agricultural), and landforms (three elevation classes with equal elevation
ranges, representing plateau, slope and valley; Fig. 1).</p></list-item></list></p><?xmltex \hack{\newpage}?>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3">
  <label>3</label><title>Results</title>
      <p id="d1e2093">Here we present the results from the HydroLorica model. Section 3.1 shows
the patterns, distributions and changes of soil and terrain properties in
space and time. Section 3.2 shows the results from the statistical analyses
to quantify and summarize spatial and temporal soil and terrain patterns. In
Supplements 2 and 3 we provided two animations to help visualize the simulated soil and landscape evolution. The animations show (1) maps of soil
and terrain properties and forest cover and their changes through time, and
(2) maps of elevation change by each geomorphic process and their changes
through time.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F4" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{4}?><label>Figure 4</label><caption><p id="d1e2098">Probability density functions (PDFs) showing the multi-modal distributions of soil properties throughout the catchment per 10 cm depth increment. We only show probabilities larger than 5 % for
clarity. The presented soil properties are clay fraction <bold>(a, b, c)</bold> and SOM
fraction <bold>(d, e, f)</bold>, for the different rainfall scenarios (columns). Grey
colors represent the natural soils, while red colors represent agricultural
soils. The horizontal dotted line indicates the ploughing depth used for
simulations (20 cm).</p></caption>
        <?xmltex \igopts{width=341.433071pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://soil.copernicus.org/articles/6/337/2020/soil-6-337-2020-f04.png"/>

      </fig>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F5" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{5}?><label>Figure 5</label><caption><p id="d1e2115"><bold>(a)</bold> Average erosion rates throughout the catchment for
the different geomorphic processes over time. The colors represent different
geomorphic processes, and the line types represent different rainfall
scenarios. Note that the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M43" display="inline"><mml:mi>y</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> axis is log scaled. <bold>(b)</bold> Cumulative elevation change at the end of the natural and agricultural phase compared to the
initial DEM for the different rainfall scenarios.</p></caption>
        <?xmltex \igopts{width=341.433071pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://soil.copernicus.org/articles/6/337/2020/soil-6-337-2020-f05.png"/>

      </fig>

<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS1">
  <label>3.1</label><title>Simulated soil and landscape evolution</title>
      <p id="d1e2144">The results of HydroLorica show clear differences in the development of soil
profiles at different landscape positions, for the different rainfall and
land-cover/land-use scenarios (Figs. 2, 3). In the natural phase, the forest cover
shows a clear climatic and topographic dependence (animation in Supplement 2). For greater rainfall, there is a higher<?pagebreak page346?> forest cover. The spatial
pattern is mainly controlled by slope orientation. The north-facing slopes
display a higher forest cover due to lower evapotranspiration. The valley
and the hillslope depressions show a higher forest cover due to the higher
moisture availability as a consequence of surface runoff. Higher rainfall also leads to deeper eluviation of clay at each landscape position, showing more
pronounced Bt horizons. Also, the soil profiles get more disturbed by tree
throw with higher rainfall, as can be seen by the fluctuations in elevation
and SOM stocks. The depth to the Bt horizon remains at the same position
below the surface at the eroding position. At all locations, SOM stocks
reach an equilibrium after <inline-formula><mml:math id="M44" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>∼</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3000</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> years, but most of the SOM
is generated in the first 500 years.</p>
      <p id="d1e2157">In the agricultural phase, relief changes much more quickly, leading to truncation of the eroding soil profile<?pagebreak page347?> (Fig. 3). Also, SOM
stocks decrease substantially in the soil profiles due to lower input. At
the deposition site, there is a small increase in SOM stocks at the end of
the agricultural phase, caused by the continuous input of soil material. The
increased elevation change is clearly visible in Fig. 2. After the natural phase, there is limited elevation change on the slopes, with some water erosion at the valley bottom forming a <inline-formula><mml:math id="M45" display="inline"><mml:mi>v</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>-shaped gulley. After the agricultural phase, the hillslopes are heavily eroded,
while the valley bottom is filled with colluvium. The high erodibility of
clay that we simulated in the model affected the clay distributions in the
model results. In the natural phase, topsoil clay gets laterally relocated
from the hillslopes to tree throw pits and the valley bottom. This clay was
partly replenished from the subsurface by bioturbation. This led to a net
loss of clay from the entire depositional profile in the wet scenario, due
to higher water flow and erosion potential (Fig. 3). In the agricultural phase, clay does not get trapped in tree throw pits
anymore, but leaves the catchment with the water. This reduced the clay
contents even more at the valley bottom (Fig. 2).</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F6" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{6}?><label>Figure 6</label><caption><p id="d1e2169">Experimental semivariograms of the model results showing
semivariance for different soil <bold>(a, b)</bold> and terrain properties <bold>(d–f)</bold> with
different precipitation scenarios (line types) at the end of the natural
(black) and agricultural (red) phases. For comparison, panel <bold>(c)</bold> shows
experimental semivariograms of depth to <inline-formula><mml:math id="M46" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>B</mml:mi><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> from a natural area
(Meerdaal forest, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M47" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>P</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">800</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> mm, Vanwalleghem et
al., 2010) and an agricultural area (CarboZALF-D, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M48" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>P</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">500</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> mm, Van der Meij et al., 2017). Note that these field data
are presented with different axes. The experimental semivariograms are
displayed with lines rather than points for easier visual comparison.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=369.885827pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://soil.copernicus.org/articles/6/337/2020/soil-6-337-2020-f06.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d1e2223">Figure 4 shows how clay and SOM fractions vary with
depth throughout the entire catchment. The presented probability density functions (PDFs) show multi-modal distributions of the soil properties,
which cannot simply be captured using summary statistics. Both higher
rainfall and agricultural land use increase the heterogeneity of clay
profiles in the landscape, as can be seen by the wider ranges of the
different PDFs throughout the entire depth profile. Also, the occurrence of Bt horizons decreases with higher rainfall, due to losses of clay by lateral
erosion rather than vertical transport as mentioned in the previous
paragraph. With higher rainfall, the percentages of soils with a Bt horizon
occurring in the natural settings are 98 %, 93 % and 62 %. For the SOM
profiles, higher rainfall also leads to more heterogeneity. Especially in
the topsoil a larger spread is simulated. Cultivation reduces the fraction
and the topsoil variation, due to lower input and vertical and lateral
topsoil homogenization (Fig. 4 and
Table 2).</p>

<?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><table-wrap id="Ch1.T2" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{2}?><label>Table 2</label><caption><p id="d1e2229">Model and field organic carbon stocks (kg m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M49" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>) for
different depth ranges, averaged over the catchment (average <inline-formula><mml:math id="M50" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula>
standard deviation). The model results were converted from SOM to SOC by
multiplying the SOM stocks by 0.58 (Wolff, 1864).</p></caption><oasis:table frame="topbot"><oasis:tgroup cols="8">
     <oasis:colspec colnum="1" colname="col1" align="left"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="2" colname="col2" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="3" colname="col3" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="4" colname="col4" align="right" colsep="1"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="5" colname="col5" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="6" colname="col6" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="7" colname="col7" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="8" colname="col8" align="right"/>
     <oasis:thead>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"/>
         <oasis:entry rowsep="1" namest="col2" nameend="col8" align="center">Carbon stocks (kg m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M51" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>) </oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"/>
         <oasis:entry rowsep="1" namest="col2" nameend="col4" align="center" colsep="1">Natural phase (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M52" display="inline"><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> 14 500) </oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry rowsep="1" namest="col5" nameend="col7" align="center">Agricultural phase (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M53" display="inline"><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> 15 000) </oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">Liu et al. (2011)</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Depth range (m)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">Dry</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">Humid</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">Wet</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">Dry</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">Humid</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">Wet</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8"/>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">(grassland)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">(mixed)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">(forest)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8"/>
       </oasis:row>
     </oasis:thead>
     <oasis:tbody>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">0–0.2</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">4.7 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M54" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.3</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">4.6 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M55" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.9</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">4.1 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M56" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 2.1</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">2.9 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M57" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.1</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">2.9 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M58" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.3</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">2.8 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M59" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.4</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">3.0 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M60" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 1.9</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">0–0.4</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">8.7 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M61" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.4</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">8.5 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M62" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 1.1</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">7.8 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M63" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 2.8</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">5.5 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M64" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.2</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">5.4 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M65" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.5</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">5.3 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M66" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.6</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">5.4 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M67" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 3.2</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">0–1</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">17.1 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M68" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.4</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">16.8 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M69" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 1.2</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">15.7 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M70" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 3.5</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">10.9 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M71" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.6</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">10.8 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M72" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.8</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">10.6 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M73" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.8</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">8.8 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M74" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 4.4</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">0–2</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">24.1 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M75" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.4</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">23.7 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M76" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 1.3</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">22.3 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M77" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 3.8</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">15.7 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M78" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 1.2</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">15.6 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M79" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 1.2</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">15.4 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M80" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 1.1</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">14.5 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M81" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 5.2</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Complete profile</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">27.7 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M82" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 1.3</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">27.1 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M83" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 1.7</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">25.3 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M84" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 8.5</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">18.6 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M85" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 16.1</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">18.4 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M86" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 9.1</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">17.8 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M87" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 10.1</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">–</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
     </oasis:tbody>
   </oasis:tgroup></oasis:table></table-wrap>

      <p id="d1e2755">All scenarios show a net elevation loss in the natural phase
(Fig. 5a). Creep transported hillslope material to
the valley bottom, which water erosion partly removed from the catchment.
The terrain becomes rougher with higher rainfall, due to increased water
erosion and a higher occurrence of tree throw. Indirectly, the rougher
terrain leads to increased creep rates, because of the locally increased
relief gradients. Tillage erosion has had by far the largest impact on the
terrain (Fig. 5), overprinting the effects of
natural geomorphic processes.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS2">
  <label>3.2</label><title>Statistical analysis of soil and terrain properties</title>
      <p id="d1e2766">Semivariograms summarize the spatial autocorrelation of soil and terrain
properties as a function of distance between soil locations
(Fig. 6). The semivariogram contains three
parameters. The nugget is the intercept with the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M88" display="inline"><mml:mi>y</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> axis, representing the local variability of the data and (in empirical studies) measurement
uncertainty. The sill is the asymptote of the semivariogram and represents
the maximum variability between pairs of observations at a distance where
their proximity no longer matters. The range is that distance where the
semivariogram levels off, approaching the sill. The range thus represents
the maximum distance over which properties from two locations are
autocorrelated.</p>

<?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><table-wrap id="Ch1.T3" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{3}?><label>Table 3</label><caption><p id="d1e2779">Results from the analysis of variance, indicating the
proportion of variance in soil properties explained by the different soil-forming factors. The data are both considered in total and grouped per land use (natural or agricultural). The bold numbers indicate the largest part of
the variance, either explained by one of the factors or unexplained. All responses are significant (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M89" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">&lt;</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.05</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>).</p></caption><oasis:table frame="topbot"><oasis:tgroup cols="7">
     <oasis:colspec colnum="1" colname="col1" align="left"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="2" colname="col2" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="3" colname="col3" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="4" colname="col4" align="right" colsep="1"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="5" colname="col5" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="6" colname="col6" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="7" colname="col7" align="right"/>
     <oasis:thead>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"/>
         <oasis:entry rowsep="1" namest="col2" nameend="col4" align="center" colsep="1">Depth Bt </oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry rowsep="1" namest="col5" nameend="col7" align="center">SOM stock </oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">Total</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">Natural</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">Agricultural</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">Total</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">Natural</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">Agricultural</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
     </oasis:thead>
     <oasis:tbody>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Rainfall</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">0.18</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"><bold>0.49</bold></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">0.08</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">0.02</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">0.14</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">0.02</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Landform</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">0.23</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">0.04</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"><bold>0.51</bold></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">0.04</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">0.01</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7"><bold>0.56</bold></oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Land use</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">0.01</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"><bold>0.72</bold></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">–</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Unexplained</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"><bold>0.58</bold></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">0.47</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">0.41</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">0.22</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"><bold>0.85</bold></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">0.42</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
     </oasis:tbody>
   </oasis:tgroup></oasis:table></table-wrap>

      <p id="d1e2961">In the natural phase, higher rainfall substantially increases the sill of
soil and terrain properties regardless of distance; soils and terrain are
thus more variable in space for higher rainfall, but do not display stronger
spatial autocorrelation. Especially the SOM stock shows high semivariance
over all distances in the wet scenario, due to a larger spatial
redistribution by water.</p>
      <p id="d1e2965">In the agricultural phase, the differences between the rainfall scenarios
are much less pronounced; the variations in the properties are similar for
each rainfall scenario. The local variation, expressed by the nugget,
decreases in the agricultural phase because of short-range homogenization by
ploughing. For the soil properties (Fig. 6a, b),
the range and sill general increase compared to the natural situation, while
the topographic properties show sills and ranges similar to or lower than
the natural settings. The differences in semivariance of the depth to Bt
horizons in natural and agricultural settings appear also in semivariograms
calculated from field data (Fig. 6c). The data
from Meerdaal (a natural forest in the loess belt in Belgium) show a semivariogram that fluctuates around a constant value, while the data from
agricultural field CarboZALF-D (located on a glacial till in northeastern Germany) show increasing semivariance with distance. The shapes of the field semivariograms match those of the model results, but note that the distances
of the field data are 5 times larger than those of the model results, while the sills are about half.</p>
      <p id="d1e2968">The correlations between soil and terrain properties also differ between
rainfall and land-use options (Fig. 7). In the natural phase, soil–landscape correlations are generally limited to 0.25, with the exception of the correlation between depth to Bt and slope in the humid scenario. In the agricultural phase, the correlations initially increase for
each combination of soil and terrain property, up to 0.8. The correlations
generally approach constant values in the agricultural phase. An exception
to these patterns are the same correlations between slope and depth to the
Bt horizon in the humid scenario. Those correlations increase to 0.4 and decline again in the agricultural phase. These large correlations in the
natural phase appear from relatively little disturbance by tree throw and
sufficient water to redistribute in the landscape. The small wiggles in the
correlation lines are caused by minor uncertainties in our algorithm to
derive soil properties from the model results.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F7"><?xmltex \currentcnt{7}?><label>Figure 7</label><caption><p id="d1e2973">Correlations (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M90" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) between selected soil properties (line
types) and topographic properties (colors) through time (left to right), for
the different rainfall scenarios (top to bottom). In the natural system, the
correlations are presented every 500 years, while in the agricultural
system, the correlations are presented every 50 years. Note that for the
latter phase the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M91" display="inline"><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> axis is stretched.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=241.848425pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://soil.copernicus.org/articles/6/337/2020/soil-6-337-2020-f07.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d1e3000">Table 3 shows the results from the analysis of
variance, which shows how much of the variance in soil properties at the end
of the natural and agricultural phases can be<?pagebreak page348?> explained by different factors
(Table 3). The variance in depth to the Bt horizon
can be partly explained by rainfall (18 %) and landscape position
(23 %), when considering all data together. However, the largest part of
the variance remains unexplained. For the SOM stocks, most of the variance
can be explained by the land use (72 %). When grouped per land cover/use,
about half of the variance of depth to Bt can be explained by either
rainfall (natural phase) or landform (agricultural phase). For the SOM
stocks the dominant factors are the same, but the variance in the natural
soil landscape can only be partly explained by rainfall (14 %), and a large part remains unexplained.</p>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S4">
  <label>4</label><title>Discussion</title>
<sec id="Ch1.S4.SS1">
  <label>4.1</label><title>Soil patterns and properties</title>
<sec id="Ch1.S4.SS1.SSS1">
  <label>4.1.1</label><title>Soil patterns</title>
      <p id="d1e3026">Soils have been affected by humans for over 1000s of years, either directly by agricultural use or indirectly by adjusting factors that form
the soil, such as vegetation or climate<?pagebreak page349?> (Amundson et al., 2015; Bajard et
al., 2017; Dotterweich, 2008; Stephens et al., 2019). Therefore it is
difficult, if not impossible, to find locations where truly natural soils
can be observed and compared to agricultural soils in similar settings.
Model simulations enable this comparison, as we show in this study.
Unfortunately, there are limited field data to calibrate and validate the model. To our knowledge, the dataset from Vanwalleghem et
al. (2010) is the only dataset that enables quantification of the spatial
distribution of natural soils and links it to terrain properties at a local to regional scale, similar to the setting we simulated. In this section, we rely mainly on this dataset to discuss and evaluate the patterns of natural
soils we simulated with our model. For the agricultural soil patterns, we
use an extensive dataset from an intensively managed agricultural field in
northeastern Germany (CarboZALF-D, Van der Meij et al., 2017). In our model simulations, we simplified the agricultural conversion by assuming a single vegetation type in the entire catchment and direct
intensive management with tillage. This enabled us to isolate the role of
tillage erosion in the development of agricultural soil and landscape patterns. We did not consider a slow historical development of the
agricultural system with increasing management intensity and upscaling of
agricultural field sizes. The results of our simulations should be
considered to be within-field variation in soil and landscape properties. In smaller-scale farming, the within-field soil–landscape relations will also be present, but they are probably secondary to variation between fields caused by different management (history), vegetation type or anthropogenic
structures such as hedges, banks and roads (e.g., Follain et al., 2006; Peukert et al., 2016; Yemefack et al., 2005).</p>
      <p id="d1e3029">We used semivariograms to illustrate the spatial autocorrelation of soil and
landscape properties (Fig. 6). Semivariograms are
very case-study-specific, because the range, sill and nugget are affected by the scale of topographic and lithogenic variation, different rates of
pedogenic and geomorphic processes and different types of human disturbances
in the landscape. Therefore, we only compare the trends in the
semivariograms from model and field results to evaluate the type of spatial
autocorrelation of soil properties in such settings.</p>
      <p id="d1e3032">Figure 6b and c show experimental semivariograms of depths to Bt horizons in model and field data. In both panels, the agricultural settings show higher spatial autocorrelation compared to the
natural settings, expressed by the higher sill and range. This indicates
that in agricultural fields the depths to Bt horizons are more spatially
organized (higher large-scale variability), with larger differences between different landscape positions. In natural areas, the spatial differences in
depth to Bt horizon are lower and there is less spatial organization of the
depth distributions. The model and field results show different magnitudes
in nugget, range and sill. This can be explained by (1) the high density of
data points in the model results which enabled us to calculate the
semivariance over very short distances, reducing the nugget, and<?pagebreak page350?> (2) the fact that we used a very condensed DEM with high local variation in topographic properties as input for the model results, which led to high local variation in soil properties too. Nonetheless, the similar trends in the field and
model semivariograms indicate that the general soil patterns from model and
field results agree. Also, the correlations between soil and landscape
properties are similar for field and model results.
Vanwalleghem et al. (2010) found correlations between
different horizon depths and topographic properties with <inline-formula><mml:math id="M92" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>s ranging
between 0.02 and 0.1, which are the same order as most correlations we
calculated in Fig. 7. These similarities indicate
that our model HydroLorica simulated the essential processes that form these
natural soil patterns.</p>
      <p id="d1e3046">Our simulations show a large diversity of natural soil patterns, influenced
by the amount of rainfall and associated vegetation type. The available
water leads to a regionally higher rate of soil development, for example in
the form of deeper clay eluviation (Fig. 3), and
also to a greater lateral redistribution of soil material by water erosion
and tree throw (Fig. 5) and spatially varying
infiltration rates. With more rainfall, the higher rates and interactions
between these processes lead to a spatially more heterogeneous soil pattern,
as expressed in higher ranges and sills in the semivariograms
(Fig. 6). This local variation in pedogenesis due
to different water input has been recognized and partly accounted for in
other modeling studies (Finke et al., 2013; Saco et al., 2006; Shepard et al., 2017), but had not emerged from soil–landscape evolution studies. Also, the terrain, summarized by slope, TPI and TWI, becomes more heterogeneous with higher rainfall. Water flow thus affects soil and terrain
patterns in a similar way.</p>
      <p id="d1e3050">Intensively managed agricultural soils display entirely different patterns
compared to natural soils. There is lower small-scale variability due to the absence of tree throw and local homogenization by tillage, while the
semivariograms of soil properties suggest higher sills, i.e., higher large-scale variability and spatial autocorrelation of soil properties compared to
natural soil properties. This is due to the slope-dependent intensity of
tillage erosion (Phillips et al., 1999). This erosion leads to
truncation of soils at convex positions, while concave positions have a net
accumulation of material (De Alba et al., 2004). This
truncation is visible in many agricultural landscapes, because subsurface
horizons with different colors get exposed at the surface in heavily eroded locations (e.g., Smetanová, 2009; Van der Meij et al., 2017). In contrast, terrain properties seem to display lower spatial
variation in agricultural landscapes. The smoothing effect of tillage on the
terrain removed local pits and rills created in the natural phase. We
hypothesized earlier that a smoother terrain would have higher hillslope
connectivity, leading to increased water erosion (Van der
Meij et al., 2017). However, we observed the contrary in our model results
(Fig. 5). The export of sediments from the
catchment might be higher, but the uptake and local redistribution of
sediments on the hillslope is lower, because local steep gradients are removed. Tillage is thus the dominant process forming agricultural soil
patterns. The effect of anthropogenic soil erosion on soil heterogeneity far
exceeds effects of changes in for example rainfall, which shows the huge
impact we have as humans on soil–landscape development.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S4.SS1.SSS2">
  <label>4.1.2</label><title>Process calibration and verification</title>
      <p id="d1e3061">The rates of the simulated processes were difficult to calibrate and
validate. This is mainly due to a lack of field data that cover a range of climatic, topographic, chronologic and geographic settings
(Van der Meij et al., 2018). Such data are essential
for formulating pedogenic functions that are applicable in a wide range of
settings instead of only in case studies, or for verifying model results.
The chronosequence collection of Shepard et al. (2017) is a global
dataset of soils in various settings covering different time steps. This
dataset could be a good starting point for developing such functions owing
to its large coverage. But as chronosequences are generally situated in
relatively flat, stable landscapes, they often do not contain information
about variations of soil properties at small distances, as a function of local terrain (Harden, 1988; Sauer, 2015) – with the exception of
some pro-glacial soil chronosequences whose use is limited because of their
extreme climate and parent material (Egli et al., 2006; Temme and Lange,
2014). Such more complete information is essential for understanding the
formation of soil patterns, as illustrated in the previous section. Therefore, we suggest including topographic variation in future chronosequence studies (Temme, 2019). A dataset covering different
geographies could also raise the comparison of model and field results
beyond the case-study level.</p>
      <p id="d1e3064">In this study, we worked with an artificial landscape to avoid effects of
uncertainties and local variations in initial and boundary conditions that
are often present in data from field settings (e.g., Van der Meij et al., 2017). This allowed us to investigate the universal
effects of changes in rainfall and land use on the model results, as a function of terrain morphology. Although uncertainties in boundary
conditions appear to have a limited effect on the outcomes of soil evolution
models, uncertainties in initial conditions can strongly influence the
results (Keyvanshokouhi et al., 2016).</p>
      <?pagebreak page351?><p id="d1e3067">One soil property for which there are plenty of data on the spatiotemporal variation is soil organic matter or carbon, due to the current interest in
its potential to store atmospheric carbon (Minasny et al., 2017). We used
a regional dataset from the loess plateau to calibrate our SOM cycle in
agricultural landscapes, and we used carbon sequestration rates for adjusting the SOM balances for forest and grassland areas. The modeled SOM stocks for agricultural sites match the field data fairly well
(Table 2), but stocks for natural areas are
estimated higher than often observed. For example, in Bavaria, Germany,
carbon stocks in the first meter, including the optional litter layer, are
9.8–11.8 kg m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M93" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> (Wiesmeier et al., 2012), where we
simulated 15.7–17.1 kg m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M94" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> in our natural settings without
consideration of a litter layer. Also, the depth distributions are different. De Vos et al. (2015) found that 50 % of the carbon stock
occurs in the top 20 cm in European forests on various parent materials. In
our results this is around 20 %. This implies that agriculturally derived SOM depth functions are not suitable for calibrating natural SOM depth functions, probably because input, vertical redistribution, litter quality
and decay of SOM behave differently in natural and agricultural sites. To
calibrate these parameters, data from agricultural and natural sites in
close vicinity are needed to avoid effects of geographic and climatic differences. We are currently not able to simulate and calibrate these
processes properly.</p>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S4.SS2">
  <label>4.2</label><title>Drivers of soil formation</title>
<sec id="Ch1.S4.SS2.SSS1">
  <label>4.2.1</label><title>Soil-forming factors</title>
      <p id="d1e3110">Different soil-forming factors dominate the variance in soil properties in natural and agricultural systems (Table 3). In
natural systems, rainfall is the dominant factor explaining the variance. In
scenarios with greater rainfall, rates of soil and landscape change are
larger, leading to more complex patterns. Although we did not simulate a
changing climate, the results suggest that we can expect more stable
conditions with similar pedogenesis rates throughout the landscape in
periods with lower rainfall, while periods with greater rainfall may induce
landscape change and spatially varying rates of pedogenesis. The major
driver of this increased landscape change is the higher occurrence of tree throw. The higher water availability increases forest cover, leading to more
tree throws (see the animations in Supplements 2 and 3).</p>
      <p id="d1e3113">Although our vegetation module is very simple, it was able to simulate the
climatic and topographic control on vegetation patterns which affect
geomorphic and pedogenic processes. We would expect similar results to be
obtained if a more complex vegetation module that does justice to ecological
complexity (i.e., resilience, succession) would be incorporated.</p>
      <p id="d1e3116">In intensive agricultural systems with large fields, landform is the
dominant factor explaining the variance (Table 3).
This shift from external factors in natural systems to internal factors in
agricultural systems marks the importance of geomophic processes in agricultural soil patterns. Although relief controls rates and directions of
geomorphic processes, the type of process is human-controlled. Humans have a
massive impact on soil development (Amundson and Jenny, 1991; Dudal,
2005). Direct effects include agricultural use, excavations, introduction of
organisms and creation of new parent materials (Richter et al., 2015),
while indirectly anthropogenic changes in climate can have severe effects on
soil properties (Nearing et al., 2004; Schuur
et al., 2015). We have focussed on the main of these anthropogenic changes
in loess landscapes: removal of forest and complete introduction of tillage,
even though intermediate forms with incomplete clearing, smaller fields and
forested borders may have historically existed. Humans as soil-forming factors form new catenae (anthroposequences) and soil patterns, where the
ultimate pattern only depends little on the initial variation
(Fig. 6). In our model results, we observe four of
the six anthropogenic changes to soils, as described by Dudal (2005):
human-made soil horizons, deep soil disturbance, topsoil changes and changes
in landforms. These changes substantially affect soil functions, such as
biodiversity and food security. Our simulations thus support the view that humans are the dominant factor in forming soils in agricultural landscapes.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S4.SS2.SSS2">
  <label>4.2.2</label><title>Soil–landscape (co-)evolution</title>
      <p id="d1e3127">The development of soils and landscapes is not merely a collection of
individual processes, but also of interactions between different processes.
When processes interact, and when changes to soils and landscapes are on the same order of magnitude, soil–landscape co-evolution can occur. This co-evolution can amplify or diminish certain processes or can completely
change the direction of soil and landscape evolution
(Van der Meij et al., 2018). Often, co-evolution is
used to describe soil and landscape processes with similar rates but that do not necessarily interact (e.g., Willgoose, 2018). This would imply that these processes would co-occur rather than co-evolve. In this section
we evaluate some co-occurring processes in HydroLorica to see whether
co-evolution occurred. There are different co-occurring processes in the
natural phase of slow landscape change compared to the agricultural phase of
intense landscape change.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S4.SS2.SSSx1" specific-use="unnumbered">
  <title>Lateral and vertical transport</title>
      <p id="d1e3136">We will first consider vertical and lateral soil transport processes. Soils
and hillslopes can be considered a series of transport ways or conveyor belts (Román-Sánchez et al., 2019). Vertical transport or
mixing occurs by bioturbation including tree throw and clay translocation,
whereas lateral transport occurs by creep, tree throw, water erosion and
tillage erosion. Interactions between processes can occur where transport
ways affect the same material. Two examples we will discuss here are the
vertical and lateral transport of clay and the interaction between creep and
water erosion in the valley bottom.</p>
      <p id="d1e3139">The vertical translocation of clay is simulated in our model by an
advection–diffusion equation, where the advective part is the downward transport by water flow and the diffusive part a homogenization by
bioturbation (Jagercikova et al., 2017). When the rates of advection
and diffusion are equal, the upward transport of clay by bioturbation equals
the amount of downward translocation by water; the clay-depth profile of the
soil occurs in steady state and will not change substantially. Steady-state
circumstances are however rare in natural soil systems
(Phillips, 2010). Our simulations do not<?pagebreak page352?> show steady-state
circumstances, because in our simulations there is always lateral transport
of soil material that continuously changes slope and terrain properties and
affects the soil's clay balance, complicating the achievement of a steady
state. Periodic water erosion can remove substantial amounts of clay that
have been transported to the surface by bioturbation. This is clearly visible in the results of the wet scenario (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M95" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>P</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">900</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> mm), where only 62 % of the
soils developed a Bt horizon. The other 38 % had insufficient clay left to
be classified as Bt according to our criteria. These results are quite
extreme for such a small catchment as ours, probably due to too high
simulated rates of water erosion, but they do show how pedogenic and
geomorphic processes can interact in sloping terrain. In the natural phase
the rates of clay translocation are similar to those of geomorphic
processes. The recovery of the clay-depth profiles after disturbance of, e.g., tree throw takes similar times (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M96" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>∼</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1000</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>s of years) to the re-occurrence of a sequential tree throw event in the vicinity
(Fig. 3). Tree throw also temporarily changes
rates of clay translocation by concentrating infiltration in the created
pits. In the agricultural phase the rates of geomorphic processes far exceed
the rates of clay translocation. This causes truncation of the soils,
exposing the Bt horizons at the surface and burying these horizons elsewhere in the landscape. The clay profiles at eroded sites do not have
time to react to the geomorphic disturbances. However, clay illuviation can
start as a new pedogenic process in older depositional areas
(Supplement of Leopold and Völkel, 2007; Van der Meij
et al., 2019; Zádorová and Pení žek, 2018).</p>
      <p id="d1e3164">Another interaction that emerged from the simulations occurred at the valley
bottom. Soil creep transported hillslope material downslope, whence the
concentrated water flow in the valley removed it from the catchment,
creating a <inline-formula><mml:math id="M97" display="inline"><mml:mi>v</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>-shaped valley bottom (Fig. 2). This
constant removal of material maintained the gradients that were used by soil
creep to deliver new material. This interaction can be observed in various
small hillslope catchments, which display typical <inline-formula><mml:math id="M98" display="inline"><mml:mi>v</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>-shaped gulleys in the valley bottoms (e.g., Swanson and Swanston, 1977; West et al., 2013). Although this is not an interaction between pedogenic and geomorphic
processes, it determines to a large extent how soil material gets
redistributed along a hillslope and eventually gets exported from the
catchment. In the agricultural phase, diffusive transport in the form of
tillage erosion dominates over advective transport by water. As a
consequence, the typical <inline-formula><mml:math id="M99" display="inline"><mml:mi>v</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> shapes fill up and are replaced by <inline-formula><mml:math id="M100" display="inline"><mml:mi>u</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>-shaped valleys. These valley fillings consist of coarse material from which most clay was eroded (Fig. 2). In agricultural areas,
such infillings can temporarily remove erosion gulleys, but due to local
water availability, they remain weak spots for future water erosion
(Poesen, 2011).</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S4.SS2.SSSx2" specific-use="unnumbered">
  <title>Soil organic matter dynamics</title>
      <p id="d1e3201">Rates of SOM accumulation and decomposition far exceed rates of clay
translocation. SOM stocks recover quickly after a disturbance by tree throw
and can keep up with intense landscape change by tillage
(Fig. 3). Freshly exposed, reactive soil material
at eroding sites quickly accumulates new SOM, whereas SOM gets buried at
depositional positions. Meanwhile, SOM decomposition increases during
transport (Doetterl et al., 2012). In our simulations, the SOM
stocks decrease substantially in the agricultural phase, mainly due to lower
SOM input (Fig. 3). Carbon stocks show relatively
homogeneous distributions throughout the catchment
(Fig. 4), despite large spatial differences in
erosion and deposition. This indicates that landscape change in both natural
and agricultural systems did not induce substantial heterogeneity in SOM
stocks. The small differences in SOM stocks in agricultural settings depend
on landform (Table 3). These differences mainly
emerge from differences in soil thickness at erosion and deposition
positions. Deposition positions show a slight increase in SOM stocks after
cultivation, while erosion positions show continually decreasing SOM stocks
(Fig. 3). The differences in SOM stocks in the
model results are thus related to burial of colluvium in the valley bottom.
SOM cycling is heavily influenced by erosion processes, but erosion rates do
not depend on the SOM cycling. In tillage-dominated systems, erosion rates
do not depend on SOM content or SOM dynamics in the soil. The co-occurrence
of SOM cycling and tillage erosion in agricultural settings thus does not
lead to co-evolution.</p>
      <p id="d1e3204">The interactions between erosion and the SOM cycle are currently under
debate, especially whether agricultural redistribution provides a carbon
source or sink by affecting biogeochemical cycles and exporting carbon from fields and catchments (Berhe et al., 2018; Chappell et al., 2015;
Doetterl et al., 2016; Harden et al., 1999; Lal, 2019; Lugato et al., 2018;
Van Oost et al., 2007; Wang et al., 2017), which shows the importance of
considering landscape processes in pedogenic studies and vice versa.
Moreover, intensive agriculture has been practiced for over 1000s of years
in parts of the world (Stephens et al., 2019), emphasizing the need to
consider centennial to millennial time periods in studies on anthropogenic
forcing on soil systems.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S4.SS2.SSSx3" specific-use="unnumbered">
  <title>Did co-evolution occur?</title>
      <p id="d1e3214">The co-occurrence of processes does not necessarily imply co-evolution. The analysis in this section showed that soil and landscape processes
co-occurred in both natural and agricultural settings, but that interactions
between processes only occurred in natural settings. Rates of soil and
landscape change are controlled by drivers such as water availability and
vegetation type, and these drivers are influenced by soil, landscape and
climate properties. Changes in one domain in the landscape have effects on
the formation of all other<?pagebreak page353?> domains. These interactions, or co-evolution,
occur on both short and long timescales in the natural system. There are
already considerable differences between the soil patterns from each
scenario after 500 years of natural soil formation, due to the role of water
and vegetation in soil–landscape co-evolution. These differences become more pronounced over time, due to progressive soil and landscape formation (Supplement 2).</p>
      <p id="d1e3217">In comparison, the differences between the patterns of each scenario after
500 years of agricultural land use are much smaller (Supplement 2). This is
because anthropogenic processes such as tillage erosion occur at such high
rates that most natural processes cannot keep up and lead to more similar soil landscapes. In settings with uniform parent material such as we
simulated, anthropogenic processes do not show co-evolution, because the
rates of for example tillage erosion far exceed any rates of natural soil
and landscape change (Fig. 5), and the rates of the anthropogenic processes are not influenced by soil properties. Tillage can
introduce new processes or accelerate other processes, e.g., by breaking up aggregates. However, these processes do not affect the rate at which a
plough transports sediments through a landscape. If interactions between
processes do not occur on shorter timescales, they will also not emerge over
longer timescales, as is the case with natural processes as described before. The occurrence of possible co-evolution of soils and landscapes thus depends
on the type of processes that affect the system, not on the duration over
which these processes change soils and landscapes. In other words,
co-evolution is not time-dependent, but process-dependent.</p>
      <p id="d1e3220">Co-evolution of soils and landscapes can also occur via intrinsic thresholds
which do not depend on changes in external drivers such as rainfall and land
use. An example is the development of stagnating layers in the soil, which
change the subsurface partitioning of water and can introduce reducing
conditions. But, as we explain in Van der Meij et al. (2018), such intrinsic thresholds can currently not be modeled, because we lack the methods for estimating accurate soil hydraulic properties which
drive this threshold behavior. Ideally, a model shows such threshold
behavior without explicitly incorporating these thresholds into the model code as such imposed hard thresholds can cause problems when calibrating the
model by creating sharp discontinuities in the model results as a response
to slight variations in parameters (Barnhart et al.,
2019). For these reasons we focused on heterogeneity and (co-)evolution
related to external drivers in this research.</p>
      <p id="d1e3223">The soil and landscape interactions in natural settings emphasize the need
to study natural soil formation in a landscape context rather than a pedon context. Only when landscapes are stable, flat and free of trees are changes in soil properties not influenced by changes in terrain. In such
settings, a 1D soil profile evolution model would suffice to simulate soil
development in different landscape positions (Finke, 2012;
Minasny et al., 2015). When rates of geomorphic processes far exceed those
of pedogenic processes, for example in tillage-dominated systems, a
landscape evolution model would suffice (e.g., Temme et al., 2017). In undulating landscapes where various hillslope processes
occur, soils should be considered 3D bodies, and soil–landscape evolution models are essential to simulate spatial drivers of soil and landscape evolution (Willgoose, 2018).</p>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S4.SS3">
  <label>4.3</label><title>Predictability of soil patterns</title>
      <p id="d1e3235">In digital soil mapping, empirical relations between soil properties and
their environment are used to predict soil properties through space
(McBratney et al., 2003). In order to predict soil properties with
environmental variables, the environmental variables should show variation
over the same spatial scale as the variable to be predicted. On a hillslope
scale, this variation often occurs in terrain properties
(Gessler et al., 2000), while external factors such as
climate often do not vary spatially at these scales. The shift from dominant
external to dominant internal soil-forming factors in explaining variance in observed soil properties (Table 3) thus has large
implications for our ability to predict and map soil patterns. Human
activity has created soil landscapes that are well-suited for digital soil mapping. The correlations between simulated soil and several terrain
properties all give the same signal (Fig. 7): the
correlations in the natural phase are limited, but increase rapidly in the
agricultural phase. The switch from a natural to agricultural phase thus
increases soil heterogeneity, but also soil predictability, which can be
used to predict the soil properties in large-field settings. One should be
careful extrapolating soil-terrain relationships from agricultural areas to natural areas, as these correlations depend on land management and can give wrong results under different land cover.</p>
      <p id="d1e3238">Digital soil mapping (DSM) performs well when predicting the spatial distribution of agricultural soils, but its applicability in time is limited because of limited temporal data (Gasch et al., 2015; Grunwald, 2009). The limited
observations in space and time can be supplemented or extrapolated by
incorporating biogeochemical process descriptions to improve DSM
(Angelini et al., 2016; Christakos, 2000, 22 pp.; Heuvelink and Webster,
2001). However, the response of soils and terrains to changes in soil-forming factors takes longer (decades to millennia) than the time span over which we have observations (days to decades). Process-based models thus
become increasingly essential for understanding how soils might change under
projected scenarios of land use and climate change (Keyvanshokouhi et
al., 2016; Opolot et al., 2015), and HydroLorica shows a promising first
example of such a model on a landscape scale that responds to changes in all
five soil-forming factors and by extension the human control on these factors.</p><?xmltex \hack{\newpage}?>
</sec>
</sec>
<?pagebreak page354?><sec id="Ch1.S5" sec-type="conclusions">
  <label>5</label><title>Conclusions</title>
      <p id="d1e3252">Soils undergo substantial changes in the transition from a natural land
cover to agricultural land use. Although these changes can be described
conceptually, quantitative data to describe the changes in soil pattern are
scarce. We developed a soil–landscape evolution model, named HydroLorica, which is able to simulate the evolution of soils and landscapes in both natural and agricultural settings, by simulating spatially varying
infiltration as a driver of soil formation and by inclusion of essential natural and agricultural processes such as soil creep, tree throw and
tillage. We used this model to simulate soil and landscape development in
varying climatic settings, under changing land use, to quantify changes in
variation and predictability of soil patterns. We reached the following
conclusions.
<list list-type="bullet"><list-item>
      <p id="d1e3257">Natural and agricultural landscapes display different soil patterns. Natural
soil patterns are more chaotic and random with higher precipitation. Their
formation is dominated by local processes such as tree throw and spatially
varying infiltration. Soil patterns in intensively managed fields are
dominantly formed by tillage erosion processes. Also, agricultural soil
properties show larger correlations with terrain properties.</p></list-item><list-item>
      <p id="d1e3261">In natural systems, rainfall is the main factor influencing soil variation.
In agricultural systems, landform explains the largest part of variation.
The most important factor affecting total soil variation is the human
factor. Agricultural land use increases erosion rates, which changes soil
patterns and creates and amplifies the topographic dependence of soil
properties.</p></list-item><list-item>
      <p id="d1e3265">In natural and agricultural settings there are different sets of processes
that change soils and landscape with similar rates. In natural systems,
these processes often interact and amplify or diminish each other, leading
to soil–landscape co-evolution. In agricultural systems, these interactions are often missing, and processes co-occur rather than co-evolve.</p></list-item><list-item>
      <p id="d1e3269">Agricultural soil patterns in a large-field setting are easier to predict
than natural soil patterns, due to the shift from dominant external to
internal factors that explain soil variation, which manifests itself in
larger correlations between soil and terrain properties.</p></list-item></list></p>
      <p id="d1e3272">Soil–landscape evolution models are increasingly equipped to simulate soil–landscape development in a variety of settings. Our contribution shows the added value of using water availability as a spatially varying driver of
pedogenesis to simulate soil and landscape development in natural settings.
These developments are essential to study the vulnerability and resilience
of soil systems under the increasing pressure from land-use intensification and the changing climate, but can also assist in understanding the long-term
effects of management strategies such as reduced tillage or no-till on soil
properties such as carbon stocks.</p>
</sec>

      
      </body>
    <back><notes notes-type="codedataavailability"><title>Code and data availability</title>

      <p id="d1e3279">Model code is available on request via the corresponding author. Weather data that were used to run the model were gathered from the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD Climate
Data Center (CDC), 2018a, b).</p>
  </notes><app-group>
        <supplementary-material position="anchor"><p id="d1e3282">We provided the following Supplements:
Supplement 1: Model equations and parameters (document).
Supplement 2: Maps of soil and terrain properties through time (animation).
Supplement 3: Maps of elevation change due to the different geomorphic
processes through time (animation). The supplement related to this article is available online at: <inline-supplementary-material xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-6-337-2020-supplement" xlink:title="zip">https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-6-337-2020-supplement</inline-supplementary-material>.</p></supplementary-material>
        </app-group><notes notes-type="authorcontribution"><title>Author contributions</title>

      <p id="d1e3291">The authors contributed to experimental concept and design, model
development, data analysis and paper preparation in the following
proportions: WMvdM (25 %, 75 %, 75 %, 65 %), AJAMT (25 %, 25 %,
15 %, 20 %), JW (25 %, 0 %, 10 %, 10 %), MS (25 %, 0 %,
0 %, 5 %). The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.</p>
  </notes><notes notes-type="competinginterests"><title>Competing interests</title>

      <p id="d1e3297">The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.</p>
  </notes><ack><title>Acknowledgements</title><p id="d1e3303">We thank Tom Vanwalleghem (University of Cordoba, Spain) for sharing the
Meerdaal dataset.</p></ack><notes notes-type="reviewstatement"><title>Review statement</title>

      <p id="d1e3308">This paper was edited by Peter Fiener and reviewed by Christopher Shepard and one anonymous referee.</p>
  </notes><ref-list>
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<abstract-html><p>Humans have substantially altered soil and landscape patterns and properties due to agricultural use, with severe impacts on
biodiversity, carbon sequestration and food security. These impacts are
difficult to quantify, because we lack data on long-term changes in soils in
natural and agricultural settings and available simulation methods are not
suitable for reliably predicting future development of soils under projected changes in climate and land management. To help overcome these challenges,
we developed the HydroLorica soil–landscape evolution model that simulates soil development by explicitly modeling the spatial water balance as a driver of soil- and landscape-forming processes. We simulated 14&thinsp;500 years of soil formation under natural conditions for three scenarios of different rainfall inputs. For each scenario we added a 500-year period of intensive
agricultural land use, where we introduced tillage erosion and changed
vegetation type.</p><p>Our results show substantial differences between natural soil patterns under
different rainfall input. With higher rainfall, soil patterns become more
heterogeneous due to increased tree throw and water erosion. Agricultural
patterns differ substantially from the natural patterns, with higher
variation of soil properties over larger distances and larger correlations
with terrain position. In the natural system, rainfall is the dominant
factor influencing soil variation, while for agricultural soil patterns
landform explains most of the variation simulated. The cultivation of soils
thus changed the dominant factors and processes influencing soil formation and thereby also increased predictability of soil patterns. Our study
highlights the potential of soil–landscape evolution modeling for simulating past and future developments of soil and landscape patterns. Our results confirm that humans have become the dominant soil-forming factor in
agricultural landscapes.</p></abstract-html>
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